AFC training camp opens with familiar questions: who can regain form in 2026, and who might slip out of the playoff picture?

NFL training camps arrive every summer with the same promise and the same uncertainty. For the AFC, the uncertainty in 2026 is sharpened by what the league saw in the 2025 postseason: it took quarterback absences to create a new set of faces in the spotlight. Patrick Mahomes was not part of the AFC playoff picture for the first time since 2017. Lamar Jackson was also absent for the first time since 2022. Those are not small footnotes, because the AFC has been accustomed to teams building game plans around those seasons-long identities.

In that context, CBS Sports framed the AFC as a division where the margin between contending and falling short can be determined by whether key pieces return to form, and whether teams that made the playoffs can defend their roster foundations without taking on major new risks. The same piece also highlighted how quickly the postseason cast can change: the Jaguars, for example, appeared in the playoffs for the first time since 2022, and the Patriots were operating one year after finishing 4-13.

The Patriots’ 2025 record matters in this conversation because it changes what “rebound season” looks like. A team coming off 4-13 is rarely just looking to be “competitive.” Instead, the baseline question becomes whether the franchise can close the performance gap that keeps it out of the playoff bracket. CBS Sports placed New England into the preseason conversation not as a safe bet, but as a team whose trajectory depends on sustained improvement rather than isolated moments.

Quarterback health and availability also sit at the center of the 2026 narrative. CBS Sports described Joe Burrow’s continued absence when referencing the Patriots’ context, underscoring a broader theme for AFC contenders and pretenders alike: when a team’s most important player is unavailable, the roster has to become more than a backup plan. The implication for 2026 is that teams will be measured not just by offseason optimism, but by the quality of play they can produce even when their most valuable offensive asset is not fully available.

In the same preseason framing, CBS Sports used those absence timelines to argue that 2026 will reward clarity and penalize drift. If the recent postseason proved anything, it is that teams can be exposed quickly when the league’s usual gravitational pull toward elite quarterback play is missing. That creates an opening for teams that can control the line of scrimmage, protect the football, and keep games within reach long enough for the deeper roster to matter.

Still, preseason “bounce back” and “fall off” labels are inherently conditional. They are built for conversation at the start of camp, not final verdicts. Even when a team has a record like 4-13 or when a franchise is dealing with a quarterback’s absence, the AFC schedule’s week-to-week swing, the reliability of the supporting cast, and how coaching staffs adjust under real game pressure can redraw the picture far faster than preseason predictions anticipate. The 2026 answer will come from what holds when the regular season starts.

What to watch next is simple: which teams show continuity in their offensive execution, which defenses tighten their standard of play without relying on rare turnovers, and which contenders can maintain momentum when their top names are not always the center of every script. CBS Sports’ framing suggests the AFC playoff race will again be shaped as much by availability and stability as by pure talent, and that is the story that will likely define training camp’s most important work.

In other words, 2026’s AFC training camps are not just about position battles. They are about whether recent absences and recent results have created a permanent roster lesson, or a temporary storyline that teams can quickly correct once the regular-season calendar turns.