After the Sabres’ Atlantic breakthrough, the Maple Leafs’ next question is who can catch them

The Buffalo Sabres’ 2025-26 spring run did more than end a long postseason absence. According to a preview of the Atlantic Division picture, Buffalo won the division and advanced to the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, a result that reshaped what “next” looks like for everyone in the division. The key shift is that the Sabres are no longer just a team chasing good fortune. They are now a team other clubs have to plan to beat, repeatedly, not just in isolated stretches.

For the Toronto Maple Leafs, the starting point is a difficult regular season. Toronto finished with a 32-36-14 record and placed last in the Atlantic Division. That matters because the Leafs were not simply outmatched in one playoff series or a short-term slump. The record indicates a year where the team struggled to consistently collect points against divisional opposition, the same opposition that tends to define standings tie-breakers and playoff positioning.

Buffalo’s ascendance is also complicated by what the offseason changed. The same Atlantic outlook notes that Buffalo dealt Bowen Byram and Alex Tuch after reaching the kind of postseason success that creates pressure to replicate it. When a team moves out players like Byram and Tuch, the organization is essentially betting that its next roster iteration can still support the same core identity that powered a division title and a second-round run.

That creates a central question for the division’s rivals, including Toronto: can the Sabres remain top-of-the-Atlantic caliber while retooling personnel? Division-winning teams often have a short margin for error, because the gap between “good” and “contender” in a single division can be measured in a handful of results. If Buffalo’s replacements are not ready immediately, the Atlantic could reopen quickly. If they do fit, the Sabres can turn a single-season peak into a new baseline.

Toronto’s challenge is not only catching Buffalo. It is also catching the broader group around them in the Atlantic. The Atlantic outlook frames the task as finishing among the top three of the division, which is a different goal than chasing a wildcard spot after a rough start. When a team finishes last, the path back usually requires improvement in both directions of the standings, meaning better performance against divisional opponents and fewer off-nights that turn close games into losses.

There is also an alignment issue in roster strategy. The Leafs’ record suggests they were not maximizing their ability to win enough of the “games that decide the division.” Meanwhile, Buffalo’s playoff jump and the reported roster turnover involving Byram and Tuch suggests a team attempting to balance immediate results with longer-term team construction. In practical terms, rivals will watch how Buffalo’s systems and roles adjust after the personnel changes, and whether the Sabres can preserve the structure that carried them beyond the first round.

For what to watch next, the division’s preseason and early-season storyline will likely be repetition versus correction. The Sabres have proven they can win the Atlantic and push into later playoff rounds, which is a powerful recruiting and confidence report inside an NHL dressing room. But offseason moves involving key names mean there is also a plausible volatility window. For Toronto, the focus is building a season profile that produces more points in the Atlantic, rather than relying on a late correction. If Toronto can climb early, the Leafs can change the tone of the division race rather than playing catch-up.