Analysts’ constructive call on Coinbase hinges on cost cuts and a rebound in crypto trading volumes

Coinbase Global’s stock is drawing a fresh wave of bullish commentary tied to what would be a familiar swing factor for the crypto exchange business: trading volume. In a market-prediction post published July 4, 2026, 24/7 Wall St. said its outlook for Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) is “unabashedly constructive,” arguing that the stock’s setup into the back half of the year could be compelling if crypto activity recovers and if the company’s cost-out plan “sticks.”

The article frames 2026 as a difficult period for the shares, saying Coinbase has been “battered” during the year. It then pivots to expectations that the second half could look better, using a “more upside than downside” argument. The post explicitly characterizes the potential upside as “over 100%,” though it does not, in the excerpt available here, spell out the specific valuation model, revenue assumptions, or time horizon behind that figure.

Central to the bullish case is cost reduction. For crypto exchanges, the ability to manage operating expenses can matter as much as top-line growth in a subdued volume environment, because fees and other trading-related revenues tend to move with market activity. The post links its optimism to Coinbase’s efforts to cut costs, implying that lower expenses could support profitability or at least reduce losses if volumes remain volatile.

The second leg of the argument is volume recovery. Coinbase’s business depends heavily on user activity, including spot and derivatives trading. When crypto markets cool, transaction-related revenue can fall, and fixed or semi-fixed operating costs can weigh more heavily. Conversely, if trading volume normalizes, the fixed-cost base after cost cuts could provide more operating leverage. The 24/7 Wall St. piece positions that as a key condition for its forecast.

As with many market-recommendation-style articles, the presentation in the available excerpt is directional rather than deeply detailed. It does not provide additional, checkable specifics in the text available here such as exact cost targets, quantified savings, current guidance, or concrete volume forecasts. It also does not describe, in the available excerpt, which catalysts it expects to drive higher trading activity.

The broader sector context is that crypto exchange economics are highly sensitive to market conditions. During upswings, fee revenues can expand quickly; during downturns, expense discipline can become the difference between stable results and recurring pressure. Because of that sensitivity, public market participants often focus on whether exchange operators can hold down costs through cycles and whether market volumes can rebound without additional regulatory or structural headwinds.

Still, investors may want to treat the “over 100% upside” framing as a hypothesis rather than a confirmed outcome. The article’s bullish thesis depends on two variables that are outside the company’s direct control in the short run: overall crypto trading volumes and the effectiveness and durability of its cost reductions. Until more complete disclosures, forecasts, or quantified performance measures are provided in a primary source setting, the exact basis for the valuation magnitude is not verifiable from the excerpt alone.

For what to watch next, Coinbase stakeholders would typically look for clearer indicates that cost reductions are translating into improving operating metrics, and for evidence that crypto volumes are broadening beyond brief bursts. Additional detail on performance in the coming quarters, along with any guidance about expense levels and fee-related drivers, would be especially important to evaluate whether the bullish case in the prediction post is gaining support.