Andy Katz opens his first 76-team March Madness projections, spotlighting the new Opening Round

Andy Katz’s first bracket projections for the 2026-27 college basketball season arrived with a built-in twist, the NCAA tournament’s expansion to a 76-team field in 2027. The NCAA’s plan turns what used to be the First Four into a larger “March Madness Opening Round,” and Katz’s initial look at the bracket format becomes the first popular test of how those new games could play out before the familiar Round of 64 begins.

Under the NCAA’s expanded schedule, the men’s tournament begins on March 16, 2027, with the Opening Round taking place on the Tuesday and Wednesday after Selection Sunday. Those 12 games will bring 24 teams into the tournament, and then the field settles back to 64 teams for the Round of 64 on Thursday and Friday. The rest of the bracket structure, including regionals and the Final Four, is intended to stay consistent with what fans recognize.

The selection logic for the Opening Round is also part of the story. The NCAA says the Opening Round will feature the 12 lowest-seeded automatic qualifiers and the 12 lowest-seeded at-large teams on the committee’s overall seed list. Matchups are then paired using the committee’s overall seeding order, with the goal of creating competitive games immediately after Selection Sunday, while still respecting established bracketing principles.

Katz’s projection, as reported by multiple outlets referencing his announcement, illustrates how early seeds could meet those new Opening Round opponents. In Saturday Down South’s recap, Katz’s bracket includes a set of SEC teams, and the report notes one specific example of Opening Round involvement: Oklahoma is projected to be in a play-in game, facing Arizona State with both teams in the No. 11 seed range for that matchup.

The Katz projection also previewed what the new field could look like for high-end programs that do not have to start in the Opening Round. Sports Illustrated’s Houston coverage, for example, places Houston as the No. 4 seed in the South region and identifies Florida as the No. 1 seed, with UConn projected as the No. 2 seed and Vanderbilt as the No. 3 seed in that same region. The article also points to a potential path where Houston’s late-weekend matchups could include Florida and UConn if the Cougars advance.

For teams and conferences, the expansion changes the stakes long before Selection Sunday. The NCAA’s public framing emphasizes that it is adding eight teams to each men’s and women’s field and that the Opening Round is designed to add “access” without disrupting the traditional Round of 64 rhythm. Financially, the NCAA also projects more than $131 million in new revenue distributions to schools over the remaining years of its broadcast agreements tied to the tournaments.

Even with Katz’s preview in the public conversation, the practical takeaway is that nothing is final until the committee releases the official bracket and seeds. The Opening Round matchups depend on which teams land on the at-large lines and where they fall on the overall seed list, meaning early projections can quickly diverge from reality. What to watch next is how teams position themselves in the 2026-27 season to either avoid the Opening Round entirely or maximize it, because those games now carry a bigger footprint in the first week of March Madness.