Apple faces near-term scrutiny as App Store growth cools, UBS says

Apple is drawing fresh near-term scrutiny as analysts point to signs that App Store revenue growth is losing some pace. In market coverage published June 8, 2026, Yahoo Finance framed the issue as a potential headwind for Apple stock, linking investor expectations to whether App Store activity can keep Services growth resilient.

That focus matters because Apple’s Services segment includes the App Store, advertising, and cloud services. In Apple’s fiscal 2025 Form 10-K, the company reported Services net sales of $109.158 billion, up 14% from the prior year, and described the year-over-year increase as being driven primarily by higher advertising, App Store, and cloud services revenue.

Services also carries a substantially higher gross margin than Apple’s product sales. In fiscal 2025, Apple reported Services gross margin of $82.314 billion and a Services gross margin percentage of 75.4%. That makes analysts attentive to any slowdown in App Store momentum, since it is a meaningful contributor to Services expectations.

A key datapoint cited by UBS, as reported by, is that App Store revenue grew about 12% year over year in June on a reported basis. The same coverage said the growth was flat versus May, and that performance was boosted by an FX tailwind of about 200 basis points. On an FX-neutral basis, UBS estimated App Store growth slowed to around 10%, with growth falling by roughly 70 basis points month over month.

Regional details in the UBS analysis also suggested uneven underlying comparisons. reported UBS said reported growth was fairly consistent between the U.S. (about 12%) and “rest of world” (about 13%), while the underlying year-over-year comparisons differed. It also said the U.S. App Store grew 11% in the June quarter, about 100 basis points faster than the March quarter, while rest-of-world growth was up 12% on a reported basis but flat at 10% excluding currency effects.

On regulation, UBS took a more cautious-but-not-alarming view of the European Commission’s Digital Markets Act, which gives developers more ways to route app distribution outside the App Store. The report said Sensor Tower data suggests the impact has been muted in the EU so far, with App Store growth run rates in the mid-20%s since January 2024. UBS also characterized the overall revenue risk as relatively limited, noting the EU’s share of global App Store revenue is high single digits versus roughly one-third from the U.S.

Apple’s own materials continue to emphasize the scale of the broader App Store economy. In Apple’s Global Ecosystem Report (June 2025), the company estimated that the App Store ecosystem facilitated nearly $1.3 trillion in billings and sales worldwide in 2024, after more than doubling from $514 billion in 2019. Apple also clarifies that these figures are estimates and that “billings” and “sales” can differ based on how purchases are made and recognized.

Still, the near-term debate is constrained by what Apple does not disclose in real time. Apple does not break out App Store revenue growth by month inside its filings, so much of the near-term trend work relies on third-party estimates such as those referenced in the UBS/Sensor Tower analysis. The company also did not provide an App Store-specific update alongside the materials reviewed for this story, which leaves uncertainty around how much of the slowdown is structural versus timing, currency, or category mix.

What to watch next is management’s commentary around Services performance, particularly any guidance or qualitative statements that tie App Store trends to revenue expectations for the upcoming quarters. Investors will also likely monitor whether EU regulatory shifts under the DMA lead to measurable changes in App Store growth rates over time, and whether FX-neutral improvements offset reported slowing in subsequent months.