Apple shares slip as analyst warns foldable iPhone supply may miss September window

Apple shares were weaker in premarket trading after a high-profile supply-chain analyst warned that a planned foldable iPhone launch could be delayed at the point of shipment, even if Apple unveils the device in September. The caution, cited in market coverage early Monday, points to assembly and production limits that could leave early demand outpacing available units.

Ming-Chi Kuo, a well-known analyst tracking Apple’s supply chain, said his latest survey indicates foldable iPhone assembly shipments of about 7 million to 8 million units in the second half of 2026. He also projected that only 500,000 to 1 million units would be expected in the third quarter, implying that customers would likely see the first wave of availability later than a typical September launch rhythm.

By comparison, Kuo estimated assembly shipments of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max at roughly 20 million to 22 million units in the third quarter. That volume, he said, would be sufficient to support a regular launch schedule for those models, even if the foldable product faces a more constrained early production ramp.

The analyst described an iPhone X-style rollout pattern from 2017, when Apple unveiled the iPhone X alongside other new iPhone models but consumers received it later due to production bottlenecks. Under that scenario, the foldable iPhone could be announced alongside Apple’s other September iPhone releases, while pre-orders and sales availability could be delayed until inventories build for a later quarter.

Kuo also highlighted pricing and demand expectations. He estimated the foldable iPhone would cost between $2,300 and $2,500. On the demand outlook, he said it “should remain strong at least through the end of 2026,” suggesting that even with limited early shipments, customers would likely continue seeking the product into year-end.

The market coverage further quoted Kuo’s view that delivery lead times could quickly stretch to 4 to 6 weeks or longer, and remain elevated through December if early supply fails to keep pace with pre-orders. That combination, limited unit volume plus long lead times, can translate into a near-term sales timing effect for a premium device, even if the product eventually scales.

While the article reported that retail sentiment on Apple on Stocktwits dipped to “bearish” versus the prior day’s “neutral,” it also noted an increase in message volume for the ticker over the past week. That kind of split, with chatter rising but sentiment turning more cautious, is consistent with investors reacting to timing risk in a marquee new product category rather than a broader deterioration in Apple’s core iPhone plan.

Apple did not provide additional details in the coverage about how it would manage manufacturing yields, whether it will stage rollouts by region, or what internal milestones it is targeting for a foldable ramp. The post focused on Kuo’s supply-chain projections and did not cite a company statement on launch timing beyond the notion that an announcement could occur in September. The next datapoints to watch are any official Apple communications around the foldable device, as well as subsequent reports from supply-chain channels as the third quarter approaches. If shipment estimates move closer to historical iPhone launch patterns, the market’s timing concerns could ease; if they worsen, expectations may shift further into the fourth quarter.