Arizona State positioned as a 2026 College Football Playoff dark horse after Big 12 breakthrough

Arizona State is being discussed as a 2026 College Football Playoff dark-horse candidate, a role that reflects how quickly the Sun Devils have been able to change expectations within the Big 12. In a preview-style look at possible “sleepers” for the postseason, Yahoo Sports grouped Arizona State with teams it believes could be good enough to make the playoff picture without entering the season as the obvious favorites.

The argument is rooted in a specific recent proof point. The Sun Devils won the Big 12 in 2024 and earned a spot in the College Football Playoff, an outcome described as coming “out of nowhere.” That kind of leap is rare in college football, and it sets a higher baseline for how outsiders can read Arizona State’s ceiling going forward.

This matters because the Big 12 playoff math is unforgiving. Every year, only a limited number of teams can translate strong seasons into playoff berths, and the selection committee’s preference for championship-level résumés puts a premium on finishing first in the conference or assembling a schedule profile strong enough to survive losses. When a program has already done it, even once, it tends to become more credible to voters and to the broader college football industry that influences perception.

Coach Kenny Dillingham’s name is central to the framing. He is credited with leading the Sun Devils in the stretch that included the 2024 league title and playoff appearance. The “dark horse” label suggests the market still views Arizona State as a team that can advance quickly, but may not be treated as a near-lock in preseason conversations. In other words, the program is being positioned as one that could overachieve early and then sustain that momentum into conference play and the final playoff rankings.

Of course, “dark horse” discussions are not the same thing as confirmed contenders. Preseason sleeper lists often reflect what a team could become rather than what it will be in 2026. Arizona State’s ultimate playoff prospects will depend on details that are not settled by a single retrospective storyline, including whether the Sun Devils can maintain their performance level against the league’s top programs and manage the usual volatility of a college season.

What to watch next is whether Arizona State’s 2024 breakthrough becomes a consistent identity rather than an outlier. If the Sun Devils start fast, sustain production, and remain competitive deep into Big 12 play, the sleeper conversation will evolve into something more specific. If they stumble early, the label could fade quickly, because in the playoff era, the margin for error is small.