At No. 3, Memphis weighs Cameron Boozer’s steady translation against Caleb Wilson’s higher-upside questions

The Memphis Grizzlies will pick No. 3 in the 2026 NBA Draft, scheduled to begin June 23 in New York, and their board now has a familiar fork in the road. CBS Sports’ latest scouting comparison frames the decision as a choice between Duke forward Cameron Boozer and North Carolina forward Caleb Wilson, with Memphis trying to decide what kind of risk it can afford at the top of the lottery. In a year when the league’s elite wings and frontcourt players are increasingly judged on skill feel and on-court decision-making, the central question is which prospect’s athletic profile is the more believable “next level” version of himself.

Boozer’s case starts with college production and repeatable feel. CBS Sports ties his profile to an ACC title run at Duke, where he led the Blue Devils to a 35-3 record and an Elite Eight appearance. He earned First-Team All-America honors and National Player of the Year recognition after averaging 22.5 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 4.1 assists, while shooting 55.6% from the field and 39.1% from three. But the critique around Boozer has been consistent for years, rooted in how he is expected to translate physically. CBS Sports points to him getting his shot blocked 7% of the time at Duke, and to combine measurements placing his standing vert and max vert at the bottom range among the top projected prospects, along with lane agility and sprint results that suggest he is not the most explosive athlete in the group.

What Memphis would likely be buying if it leans toward Boozer is power, finishing craft, and offense that does not require pure burst. CBS Sports describes Boozer as a “hit first” type at 253 pounds, highlighting a 64% finishing rate at the rim and a style that uses contact angles to avoid the worst of offensive-foul situations. The scouting comparison also credits him with multiple scoring paths: spot-up threes at a 41% rate and pull-up threes at 37%, plus playmaking and creation as an exceptional passer. Even more central in the CBS breakdown is processing. Boozer’s combine media response, “My mind, for sure,” is used as a marker for why the scouting view expects his skill set to keep climbing even if elite leaping never becomes his calling card.

Wilson’s argument, by contrast, begins with athletic impact that appears immediate. CBS Sports highlights that Wilson’s 67 dunks in 2025-26 were the most among freshmen, 13 more than the next-highest player, and that he averaged 2.8 dunks per game. It also stresses mobility and elasticity, projecting that his body mechanics could allow him to play at high speeds and with sudden verticality. The comparison notes a clear shift on offense as well. CBS Sports describes how Wilson, once viewed as unable to function as an offensive hub at the EYBL level, arrived at UNC and became a volume scorer faster than most anticipated.

The caution for Wilson is that the same athletic advantages have not fully been accompanied by defensive structure, and that the offensive profile may not scale without growth in key creation and shooting situations. CBS Sports cites defensive concerns including unreliable on-ball technique and less reliable processing away from the ball, plus questions about motor consistency away from the ball. On offense, it credits production of 20 points on 58% shooting but points out that post-ups were nearly 25% of his individual offense, which may be harder to reproduce in the NBA. It also flags inefficiencies in spotted-up play and isolations (spot-up results ranked in the 47th percentile; isolations in the 21st percentile), that he made just under 27% of his threes, and that he converted 53% of his rim attempts in scenarios where he could not dunk, despite getting his shot blocked at a comparable rate to Boozer.

Memphis has a backdrop that makes this pick feel structural rather than experimental. An Grizzlies draft profile describes a 2025-26 season that ended 25-57 and did not qualify for the playoffs, and it notes that the year was injury-plagued, with Ja Morant appearing in 20 games and Memphis using 33 different players. In that context, a No. 3 choice has to do more than look good in athletic tape, it has to fit the franchise’s timeline for development and reliability. CBS Sports’ framing captures that tension: Boozer’s bet is on proven processing paired with power and transferable skill; Wilson’s bet is that extreme athletic tools plus an accelerated learning curve will eventually close the gap on the parts of his game that are currently inconsistent.

For what to watch next, the meaningful tells are less about “ceiling vs. floor” slogans and more about repeatable translation. Memphis will likely scrutinize how each player’s physical tools map to game speed and contact, whether Boozer’s skill set creates enough separation without relying on top-end explosiveness, and whether Wilson’s defensive processing gaps can be coached into consistent NBA habits. The draft itself will not answer everything, but it will reveal what Memphis believes it can develop fastest, and what kind of forward it wants anchoring the next stretch of its roster.