Bank of America flags a “lost year” risk for gold as the safe-haven bid cools

Gold’s 2026 story may be less about how far the safe-haven trade can go and more about whether that bid is running out of momentum, according to Bank of America’s latest framing of the metal’s outlook.

The comments arrive after gold surged about 63% in 2025, based on London Bullion Market Association benchmark data, a move that helped pull the market into a “higher-for-longer” mindset around geopolitical and macro hedging demand.

In the view presented by Yahoo Finance, Bank of America is now describing a “lost year” for gold taking shape, implying that the market may not see the kind of uninterrupted upside that investors were primed for after the 2025 surge.

While the safe-haven bid has supported gold for much of the post-pandemic period, the BofA assessment suggests that the metal’s next phase depends on factors that can fade or rotate, including the relative attractiveness of holding bullion versus alternatives and the balance between risk-off demand and real-economy growth expectations.

The report also points to a broader shift in what investors expect from bullion. In 2025, gold’s rally appears to have been powered by the idea that the safe-haven trade could extend significantly. In contrast, the “lost year” framing indicates more caution about the durability of that trade, even if gold remains a strategic asset during periods of uncertainty.

Still, the post does not disclose specific targets, timing, or the exact assumptions behind BofA’s internal scenario. It also does not provide the precise magnitude of any forecasted correction, nor does it detail which catalysts analysts are weighting most heavily (for example, interest-rate paths, currency effects, or incremental hedging demand). Without those details, it is not possible to independently evaluate how the “lost year” view is constructed.

For markets, the key question is whether gold can maintain premium pricing after a blockbuster year, or whether the market will treat 2025’s outperformance as a partial reset. A “lost year” does not necessarily mean gold falls meaningfully; it can also indicate a period of lower returns, consolidation, or volatility that disappoints investors seeking persistent gains.

What to watch next are the concrete datapoints that typically drive the bullion narrative: shifts in policy expectations that affect opportunity costs, changes in real yields, movements in the U.S. dollar, and evidence of whether safe-haven demand is broadening or narrowing. Analysts’ next updates, especially any published targets or scenario probabilities, would clarify whether BofA is calling for a true downturn or a slowdown in the rally’s momentum.