Belal Muhammad leans toward Max Holloway for UFC 329 rematch, with a specific game plan for the featherweight-to-welterweight shift

Former UFC welterweight champion Belal Muhammad sees Max Holloway as the more likely winner in the UFC 329 rematch against Conor McGregor, even as he laid out why the outcome can still swing in McGregor’s favor if the fight develops on McGregor’s terms early.

Muhammad’s reasoning starts with the history between the two fighters. The pair first met nearly 13 years ago, when Holloway was competing at featherweight and McGregor was a rising star at 145 pounds. In that 2013 bout, McGregor earned the win, and Muhammad pointed to how both men evolved afterward, with Holloway later becoming a champion in his own right.

At UFC 329, the matchup carries added complications because Holloway is taking on McGregor after a different career trajectory and at a different weight. Muhammad noted that McGregor will not be seeing Holloway at featherweight this time, with Holloway’s competition weight representing a first for him in the welterweight division.

Muhammad also framed the fight around activity and conditioning coming into fight week. His view is that Holloway has been the more active fighter in the lead-up, while McGregor, according to Muhammad’s breakdown, spent significant time recovering from a difficult injury in his most recent performance and then dealing with the long recovery arc that followed.

Still, Muhammad did not treat McGregor like a faded comeback. Instead, he described how McGregor could arrive with urgency in the earliest exchanges, particularly because McGregor’s history includes early momentum and because Holloway, in Muhammad’s view, could be forced to absorb the first part of the round at full intensity.

As a result, Muhammad said Holloway’s immediate priorities should be tactical. He specifically suggested adding takedowns as a way to wear McGregor down and slow the pace, emphasizing the first three or four minutes as the period where the fight can tilt. He also said McGregor is likely to start hot, connecting that expectation to the way McGregor’s cardio was viewed earlier in his career and the idea that coming back at higher weight could make conditioning stress even more relevant.

Muhammad’s keys for the early phase were blunt. He advised Holloway to survive those first minutes, even when initiating the clinch, and to avoid McGregor’s left-hand. The point of that advice was not only safety, but also a way to keep Holloway in a position to work his own plan over a longer 25-minute fight.

If Holloway can do that, Muhammad’s argument is that he can turn the matchup into a cardio-and-control contest, especially after the initial McGregor surge. For Holloway, Muhammad said the challenge is staying out of range while also playing the longer game, because McGregor’s return would likely come with attention to what previously worked and what did not.

The broader UFC 329 picture makes Muhammad’s preference more notable because it is not purely a confidence pick. It is a projection tied to a clear workflow for Holloway: manage the opening minutes, reduce exposure to the left hand, then use grappling to control the rhythm and the distance. With a rematch that has taken more than a decade to fully mature into this next chapter, the fight will likely be remembered not just for who wins, but for whether Holloway can implement the plan before McGregor’s early pressure makes the match spiral. Whether Holloway’s welterweight debut becomes a strength or a liability is the central question to watch.

For McGregor, the same logic suggests the path is narrow but real: if he can find the left hand early and keep the fight on the feet, he could change the fight’s tempo quickly enough to disrupt Holloway’s wrestling-and-clinch approach. UFC 329’s main event is set to be a test of timing and early-career lessons translated into a new weight class, with Muhammad’s breakdown effectively outlining what both sides must do to take control.