BofA flags tougher earnings scrutiny for Moderna, TG Therapeutics and Agios ahead of Q2

Bank of America is setting a cautious tone for the next round of quarterly results from Moderna, TG Therapeutics, and Agios Pharmaceuticals, arguing that investors will bring higher expectations for execution as the companies move from early commercial ramps toward more predictable performance.

Across the three names, the bank’s view is that Q2 should not be judged only by what companies report in sales. Instead, BofA expects questions to center on “pipeline and regulatory catalysts,” whether demand is steady, whether costs are controlled, and whether management guidance is clear enough to reduce uncertainty for forward quarters. The bank also framed the period as one where launch progress needs to show up not just as activity, but as consistent financial delivery.

For Moderna, BofA expects “limited fireworks” in the quarter, citing that prior guidance had already shaped expectations. The bank nonetheless raised its revenue outlook, nudging up its 2026 and longer-term revenue estimates, and increased its price target to $38 from $34. Despite the estimate lift, it kept an Underperform rating, suggesting that even improved expectations may not be enough to overcome concerns about how results will ultimately come through.

In TG Therapeutics’ case, BofA’s focus is on whether the company can keep clearing an increasingly high bar for Briumvi, its multiple sclerosis treatment. The bank said scrutiny may intensify after Q1 spending showed sequential increases, including research and development costs and selling, general and administrative expenses. BofA raised its price target to $20 from $17 while keeping an Underperform rating, implying the market may be watching for faster proof that spending is translating into durable growth rather than just ramping expenses.

Agios Pharmaceuticals faces a more launch-specific issue in the bank’s framing. BofA said the company-compiled Q2 consensus for mitapivat revenue is $26.9 million, and that it appears achievable after $20.7 million in worldwide sales in Q1. But the bank highlighted how efficiently prescriptions turn into paid revenue, noting that patient assistance and insurance reimbursement processes may still be settling, which can delay the reflection of demand in recognized sales.

That prescription-to-cash gap matters early in a drug launch because prescriptions can rise before revenue fully materializes in reported results. In BofA’s view, investors will likely look closely at whether conversion improves from quarter to quarter rather than accepting sales just on the basis of prescription momentum. The bank raised its price target to $46 from $40 and reiterated a Buy rating.

For biotech and specialty pharma companies, the next few earnings prints can become a referendum on operational discipline as much as product performance. Rising scrutiny typically reflects the market’s shift from “can it launch” to “can it reliably deliver,” especially when management guidance already sets the baseline for near-term outcomes.

In this case, BofA did not suggest that all three companies are headed toward negative surprises. Instead, it indicated that the debate for each company may be more about quality of execution, cost trajectory, and the timing of pipeline or regulatory milestones than about whether a single quarter beats consensus. Investors will likely use Q2 to recalibrate expectations for later catalysts and for the durability of commercial results.