Buffett’s American Express bet keeps paying off, with Berkshire’s stake still showing outsized gains

Warren Buffett’s American Express stake has continued to look like a standout holding as Berkshire Hathaway investors assess long-horizon performance, according to a market-focused report published this week. The piece argues the bet, described as a roughly $48 billion position, has produced an eye-catching outcome over the past ten years.

The article says the financial gains behind the holding translate into a total return of about 440% during the decade. In practical terms, that kind of figure reflects not just price appreciation, but the combination of market moves and any income components associated with the investment over time.

Because the update is framed around “the latest results,” it also implies the momentum behind the position is showing up in recent company performance data, though the report does not spell out the specific earnings or operating drivers in the information provided here. What is clear from the text is that the author views the streak as far from over, tying the past decade’s performance to ongoing fundamentals indicated by recent results.

For Berkshire, the American Express holding is notable less for day-to-day trading and more for the model behind it, the report suggests: concentrated bets in widely understood business franchises where management quality and competitive advantages can compound over time. Even without new disclosure detail in the text provided, the emphasis on the ten-year total return underscores how a single long-duration position can dominate a segment of an investor’s track record.

There is also a broader sector implication. American Express is a consumer and commercial payments and card business whose performance can be influenced by consumer spending trends, merchant activity, credit conditions, and funding or servicing costs. A decade of strong total return would typically be consistent with a business that has navigated those factors more successfully than the market initially anticipated, the report argues.

Still, the available information leaves open questions about exactly what portion of the decade’s total return came from which specific drivers. The update does not provide a breakdown of price versus distributions, nor does it describe whether the position size has changed materially during the period. It also does not quantify how much of Berkshire’s overall performance over the same timeframe can be directly attributed to American Express.

What to watch next is whether American Express’s “latest results” continue to support the thesis embedded in the report, and whether Berkshire indicates any change in how it evaluates the holding’s risk and opportunity as credit cycles and consumer behavior evolve. Additional clarity on performance drivers, and any Berkshire commentary around the holding, would likely be the most direct way to confirm whether the recent momentum is sustainable or merely reflective of timing.