Coinbase faces a tougher summer outlook as trading volumes stay weak, Baird warns

Coinbase Global’s shares have come under fresh pressure from Wall Street after Baird warned that a recovery in crypto trading may take longer than investors expect. In a research note dated Friday, June 5, 2026, the firm maintained a Neutral stance on Coinbase stock (COIN) while lowering its price target to $142 from $160, citing weakness in trading volumes and a potentially delayed regulatory catalyst.

Baird’s view centers on the pace of client activity on crypto exchanges, which is closely tied to how much investors trade and how much those trades generate fees. The firm said expectations are for Coinbase’s second-quarter revenue to fall about 5% to 6% below Street estimates, with volume growth likely down 15% to 20% sequentially. Baird pointed to April and May as among the slowest months in recent years, and it described early June volume improvements as potentially driven more by selling pressure than by renewed demand.

In particular, Baird said it believes trading activity may still be “limited” after bitcoin-related selling, rather than reflecting a sustained turn toward higher engagement across the market. The firm also highlighted a broader shift in investor attention away from crypto toward other market themes, though it did not suggest Coinbase-specific technical failures as the main issue.

The other major ingredient in the bearish setup is legislation. Baird said the CLARITY Act, a U.S. crypto market-structure proposal, is unlikely to pass before the November midterm elections due to legislative deadlock, including disputes over ethics and crypto issuance issues. The firm argued that delays could allow additional competition from banks and fintech companies operating under clearer, established regulatory frameworks.

The CLARITY Act is intended to provide regulatory “rules of the road” for digital assets by establishing a clearer jurisdictional line between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, according to Senate Banking Committee materials, and describes it as a framework for regulating the offer and sale of digital commodities by the SEC and CFTC.

Baird also framed the stock’s valuation as a vulnerability. It said Coinbase was trading at roughly 35 times estimated 2027 earnings per share (EPS), which it characterized as a premium that could become harder to justify if profit estimates continue to weaken. In a bear-case scenario, Baird outlined a potential move to a range of $75 to $90 if 2027 EPS were to drop to $3 and the valuation multiple compresses to 25 to 30 times.

Coinbase, for its part, has said in investor materials that revenue is primarily based on transactions on its platform and the sales of subscriptions and services. Its Q1 2026 investor update also emphasized trading and derivatives activity, reflecting how closely its performance can track crypto-market participation.

Still, several details are not quantified in the publicly available coverage of Baird’s note, including how much of the forecast shortfall the firm attributes to retail versus institutional volumes, and whether any specific product segment is expected to outperform or underperform. The note also does not lay out a clear timeline for when trading volumes should normalize, beyond the warning that the near-term recovery may not arrive quickly. Investors will likely look for signs in upcoming quarterly results, including whether trading volume stabilizes and whether regulatory headlines shift expectations for the CLARITY Act.