Colin Cowherd points to a short list of non-playoff teams to watch in the race for 2026 postseason spots

Training camp has a way of resetting expectations across the NFL, turning last season’s “almost” into this season’s “maybe.” In a FOX Sports piece published Tuesday, Colin Cowherd framed the 2026 playoff picture around a simple historical question: how many teams that missed the postseason the year before actually break through the next year? His answer, as presented in the report, is that the league sees plenty of churn, but only a handful of non-playoff teams typically make the jump within one offseason.

Cowherd’s premise is that playoff qualification tends to be sticky, even when rosters change. He highlighted how teams build in layers, with stability in key roles often separating the contenders from the also-rans. From that standpoint, his list of “most likely” new playoff teams is not a wide-open grab bag, but rather a targeted set of franchises he believes have the right mix of coaching direction, on-field identity, and roster readiness to convert opportunity into postseason wins.

The FOX Sports report specifically notes the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions among the teams he expects could reach the playoffs in 2026. That choice matters in context because both organizations are frequently treated as benchmarks in their respective conferences, and their inclusion underscores a broader point Cowherd is making: momentum plus a proven football baseline can shorten the timeline to contention.

At the same time, Cowherd’s broader argument is aimed at the teams whose fan bases want a breakthrough, not a rebuild. His framing emphasizes that hope rises when training camp begins, but that the typical “from out to in” path is harder than it looks on paper. The report suggests that even though NFL parity is real and personnel turnover is constant, the gap between making the postseason and missing it often reflects more than one breakthrough, such as a single trade or a single standout stretch.

For bettors and analysts alike, a preseason narrative like this can become an early sorting tool, but it is also inherently provisional. Training camp outcomes are not playoff outcomes, and Cowherd’s list should be read as a projection of profile and trajectory rather than a prediction of instant results. The meaningful test comes once the schedule turns into games that matter, starting with divisional matchups and carrying into late-season scenarios where tiebreakers and health can reshape the playoff standings.

If Cowherd is right, the 2026 postseason picture will not only be about the usual playoff contenders, but also about the franchises that manage to tighten execution and eliminate the week-to-week volatility that prevents teams from closing out close games. The most practical takeaway from the report is to watch which non-playoff teams demonstrate sustained improvement in both the tactical and personnel dimensions early in the season, not just flashes of potential.

As the league moves through training camp and the preseason, the storyline to monitor is whether the teams Cowherd sees as “new” playoff possibilities behave like teams building toward January football. If they do, their fans will get the kind of jump that is rarely guaranteed but always coveted. If they do not, the league’s recurring pattern may hold, with playoff spots going to the same kinds of roster structures that have earned them before.

For fans, the simplest way to track this theme is to watch the midseason markers: turnover rate, offensive efficiency under pressure, defensive consistency against the run, and how quickly a team develops chemistry on offense and special teams. Those are the traits that tend to show up in the standings, and they are the kinds of indicators that separate an “interesting” preseason projection from a legitimate postseason run.