Cubs aim to square series with Cardinals in Fourth of July matinee-night, with weather looming at Wrigley

The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals renew their rivalry on Saturday, July 4, with the teams set to meet at 7:08 CT at Wrigley Field. The storyline around the matchup is straightforward, the Cubs want to even up their series against the Cardinals after the prior game in the set. What complicates the day is the forecast, with recurring storm chances highlighted for the Chicago area, meaning fans and both clubs will be watching the radar closely as game time approaches.

From a baseball perspective, the pitching matchup and recent form offer the cleanest clues for how the day could play out. Shōta Imanaga figures prominently for Chicago. Over his most recent four starts, Imanaga has been better, posting a 2.82 ERA with a 1.075 WHIP, along with just three home runs allowed across 22.1 innings, according to local game-prep notes. The implication is not that every inning will be easy, but that the Cubs have a starter trending toward command and limiting big swings, two factors that tend to matter most against a disciplined opponent like St. Louis.

Imanaga’s history against this opponent adds texture. One of his rougher outings came in St. Louis on May 29, when the Cardinals tagged him for five hits and three of them were homers in 5.1 innings. The contrast is important, because it shows how quickly that matchup can tilt if the ball is placed in the wrong part of the strike zone. Those same notes also suggest his overall performance versus Cardinals hitters has been relatively competitive, with a.228 mark on 13-for-54, though the sample includes four home runs. In other words, it is not just about whether he is missing bats, it is also about whether the damage is mostly contained to singles and doubles.

For St. Louis, Kyle Leahy is another factor that shapes expectations. In the earlier meeting in May in St. Louis, Leahy allowed one run on six hits over 4.1 innings. That kind of line is often more about keeping the ball away from the heart of the order than overpowering anyone, and it points to why Chicago’s approach early can matter. With the Cubs and Cardinals meeting again immediately, managers typically lean on the same scouting themes from the prior matchup, looking for pitch-by-pitch adjustments rather than waiting for a major swing in tactics.

Chicago’s recent offensive outcomes also offer context for how the team has been winning and losing the small margins. Local coverage has pointed out that in one recent Cubs loss, they managed seven hits while striking out six times, and that walk totals were low, with only one walk recorded. Taken together, those details suggest that in the short term, the Cubs have been living more on making contact and turning it into base runners, rather than leaning on free passes. In a rivalry game, that approach can still work, but it increases the value of sequencing, especially with the possibility of weather forcing a delayed start or interruptions that can disrupt routine at-bats.

The practical next step is simply to confirm whether the weather holds and how long the teams can maintain their pregame rhythm. If the start stays on time, the matchup becomes a study in who controls the middle innings, whether Imanaga’s recent run translates against St. Louis’s power look, and whether Chicago’s hitters can string together extra-base hits early enough to shorten the game. If storms do delay play, that could shift bullpen planning and shorten the margin for error, making each inning’s execution even more important as the Cubs try to even the series.