D.A. Davidson Says Nvidia’s Gross-Margin Strength Could Persist Into 2030

NVIDIA’s profit margins are already the envy of chipmakers, and one high-profile Wall Street view says they could remain unusually strong through 2030. D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria told Bloomberg Television on June 5 that Nvidia’s gross margins, currently in the mid-70% range, are “relatively safe” through 2030, largely because major cloud buyers still have limited places to turn for comparable AI data-center chips.

Gross margin, a standard measure of profitability, is the percentage of revenue left after the direct costs of producing goods. Nvidia recently reported gross margins at levels that keep that measure in the same ballpark investors have been watching. In its February 25, 2026 results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, Nvidia posted GAAP gross margin of 75.0% and non-GAAP gross margin of 75.2%. For fiscal 2026 as a whole, GAAP gross margin was 71.1% and non-GAAP gross margin was 71.3%.

D.A. Davidson’s argument is less about Nvidia’s pricing power in the abstract and more about the practical switching cost for hyperscalers. According to reporting on Luria’s comments, the biggest cloud providers that are building out AI infrastructure do not have enough comparable alternatives to dislodge Nvidia’s position quickly. The same framing also points to the idea that rivals’ bids to challenge Nvidia’s ecosystem are still early, leaving negotiations on comparable terms incomplete.

The analyst discussion comes as Nvidia has continued to forecast gross margin resilience for the near term. In its outlook for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Nvidia said it expects GAAP gross margin of 74.9% and non-GAAP gross margin of 75.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points. The company also noted that it expects not to include China compute revenue in its outlook, a detail that can matter for margin analysis given different product and regulatory constraints by region.

Nvidia’s margins have been closely tied to the pace of AI infrastructure spending and to its platform role across training and inference workloads. In its fiscal 2026 reporting, Nvidia emphasized major platform transitions in its data-center roadmap, including Grace Blackwell for inference and Vera Rubin for future leadership in token-cost improvements, underscoring that product generations and systems-level deployments are central to its performance profile.

Still, a long-range margin thesis faces obvious uncertainty. Nvidia does not provide a published company forecast for gross margins through 2030, and the analyst view depends on assumptions about competitive dynamics, customer demand durability, and whether hyperscalers’ custom chips can expand beyond their current scope. Margin outcomes can also swing due to product mix, supply-chain and capacity constraints, and step-changes in next-generation designs, even when revenue growth remains strong.

What to watch next is whether Nvidia’s reported and guided gross margins continue to cluster near the mid-70% range as new platforms ramp and as customers increasingly evaluate alternative compute paths. Investors will also likely focus on whether hyperscalers deepen reliance on Nvidia at the system level, or whether custom silicon and other chip suppliers start to change procurement patterns enough to pressure pricing and profitability.