Doctoral researchers forecast scheduled impact of a spent SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage near Einstein Crater

A University of Texas at Austin doctoral candidate and co-authors say a spent SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage is forecast to impact the Moon near Einstein Crater early Wednesday morning, potentially producing a visible plume that could be observed from Earth.

The researchers, led by William Jo of UT Austin’s Cockrell School of Engineering, described the target location and timing as part of a study they posted with five co-authors. They said the impact is expected to occur on the Moon’s sunlit side during an early-morning window, a geometry they said would improve the odds of an observable event from ground-based telescopes.

According to the write-up, the team’s work centers on predicting where and when the stage’s debris would intersect the lunar surface, using orbital and observational considerations to identify a specific crater region tied to the forecast trajectory. The paper’s framing emphasizes the observational opportunity rather than a planned mission activity by NASA or other agencies.

The report also highlights that a lunar impact can generate a plume detectable from Earth under the right viewing conditions, and that the proposed timing is aligned with an opportunity for monitoring. The authors present the event as one of the earliest possible impact observations, depending on the final, near-term tracking of the object’s path.

Because the account is based on a forecast and telescope-observation planning by academic researchers, confirmation would depend on updated tracking data closer to the impact time. If observers report a plume, it would provide a new reference point for researchers studying impact signatures and the visibility of uncontrolled or spent launch-stage material in the Earth-Moon system.

The event is likely to draw attention from both astronomy and space-operations stakeholders, given that spent upper stages are a recurring byproduct of launch activity and that predicting lunar intersections is a practical exercise for observation planning. The degree to which institutional monitoring is coordinated, if any, was not described in the cited report.

Wednesday’s expected impact window is therefore best understood as a research-driven observation target: a time-sensitive forecast meant to help observers align instruments, rather than an official operational announcement from a space agency or launch provider.