Emerson College Poll/Nexstar Media survey shows Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico within 1 point

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and state Rep. James Talarico are running in a tight contest for a Texas Senate seat, according to a new Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media survey released Thursday.

The poll shows Paxton at 47 percent support compared with Talarico at 46 percent, indicating a 1-point difference between the two candidates. The survey was released with less than three months remaining before the midterm election.

The Texas Senate race matters for control of the state’s upper chamber and for how state lawmakers advance issues that frequently move through the Senate, including oversight of state agencies, state budgeting priorities, and legislation affecting public safety, election administration, and regulatory policy.

Paxton, a Republican who currently serves as Texas attorney general, enters the race with statewide name recognition from his role as the state’s chief legal officer. Talarico, a Democratic state representative, has built his campaign around state-level legislative work, positioning himself as a contrast to Paxton’s record as attorney general.

Polling like this can also influence campaign resource allocation, including where each campaign concentrates staff and advertising spending as Election Day approaches. With the numbers showing only a narrow gap, both campaigns have strong incentives to target persuasion and turnout operations rather than relying solely on persuasion at the margins.

The Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media survey adds to the calendar’s closing polling landscape as Texas voters prepare to cast ballots later this year. Further polling and public-facing debates or policy announcements closer to the election are likely to offer additional indicates about whether the race remains within a narrow range or shifts as Election Day approaches.

As the race moves from summer into the final stretch, the outcome will hinge on voter decisions across Texas’s electorate, including those who may not have firm preferences yet and those balancing issues such as taxes, government spending, enforcement priorities, and the administration of state laws through elected officials.