ESPN’s Bill Connelly puts Ohio State ahead of Oregon in final preseason SP+ projections for 2026

ESPN analyst Bill Connelly released his final preseason SP+ projections for the 2026 college football season, and the picture at the top has Ohio State first and Oregon close behind. In the ranking, Oregon is listed at No. 2 nationally, one spot back of Ohio State, setting up an early narrative of two of the sport’s most prominent programs entering the season with elite statistical expectations.

SP+ is ESPN’s long-running model that translates on-field performance into projected team quality, with the aim of forecasting how teams might perform over an upcoming season. Connelly’s “final preseason” list is designed to reflect what the model thinks after taking into account team-building context heading into camp, rather than a midseason or postseason snapshot.

Oregon’s placement at No. 2 positions it as the clear top challenger behind Ohio State in ESPN’s preseason view. The ranking matters less as a prediction of a specific outcome and more as a report of how the model expects Oregon’s overall profile to stack up relative to the rest of the Power Four and beyond.

The same ranking context also frames how fans and media will likely interpret early-season performance. When a program begins with a No. 2 SP+ forecast, each result against quality opposition takes on extra weight, because it either validates the model’s baseline expectation or forces skeptics to question what has changed since the preseason tabulation.

Ohio State, at No. 1 in the preseason SP+ projections, carries the added burden of being the reference point for comparison. In practical terms, that means Oregon’s season story will likely be written in relation to whether it can catch or separate from the team ESPN’s model views as the national favorite heading into 2026.

What to watch next is straightforward: the first stretch of the 2026 schedule will be the quickest test of how well ESPN’s projections align with the reality of game-week matchups. If Oregon performs consistently with its No. 2 ranking, it will reinforce the idea that the Ducks are one of the most complete teams in the country. If results diverge, the gap between preseason expectation and on-field execution will become a major talking point.

Until kickoff, the top-line ranking is the main takeaway. Connelly’s final preseason SP+ list gives Oregon a high-end forecast, but it also underscores that Ohio State is viewed as the benchmark team. The season will decide whether Oregon can move from “nearly there” to “at the top” in the rankings that matter most: the ones that come from games.