Gary Black Plays Down FSD Talk as Tesla Delivery Outlook Rises With Higher Oil Prices

Tesla delivered a share of momentum recently, but one prominent Wall Street voice is pushing back on the idea that excitement about software leadership, specifically full self-driving, is the main driver. In a post circulated by Yahoo Finance on July 1, Gary Black said he expects Tesla’s second-quarter deliveries to land at about 410,000 vehicles.

Black’s forecast implies a year-over-year increase of roughly 7% for the quarter, according to the same account. He framed the expectation as more connected to external demand conditions than to any near-term leap in autonomous driving performance.

A key part of Black’s argument was the role of rising oil prices. Higher fuel costs can change consumer behavior by making gasoline and diesel more expensive relative to electric vehicles, which can lift demand for EVs. Black pointed to that backdrop in explaining why he believes Tesla’s deliveries could come in stronger than many bulls have priced in.

Black also dismissed what he described as “FSD hype,” suggesting that investors should not assume that progress in Tesla’s driver-assistance and autonomy efforts will automatically translate into near-term delivery upside. Instead, he emphasized that the vehicle sales cycle is still shaped by affordability and household transportation economics.

The comment matters because Tesla’s stock has often traded as a proxy not only for vehicle demand, but also for the market’s confidence in its autonomy roadmap. Full self-driving, Tesla’s marketed driver-assistance capability and software offering, has been a frequent narrative catalyst in the stock’s volatility, even when deliveries are the metric investors can verify each quarter.

At the same time, delivery expectations remain a central scoreboard for Tesla’s quarterly results. While investors look for signs of improving demand, they also weigh whether momentum in software and autonomy can accelerate the business faster than traditional car-cycle indicators would suggest.

What is not clear from the July 1 post is whether Black’s 410,000-unit view reflects any change in Tesla’s production planning, regional mix, or pricing strategy. The account does not outline adjustments to specific models or regions, nor does it provide a breakdown by vehicle type or geographic deliveries.

For Tesla watchers, the next step is to see how the company’s reported deliveries compare with this July 1 projection and whether investors continue to treat autonomy expectations as the primary catalyst or shift attention back to macro factors like energy prices. In particular, changes in oil prices and consumer sentiment could shape the debate over demand drivers heading into subsequent quarters.