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Gold set for first weekly gain in a month as investors scale back bets on a September Fed rate hike
The Apex Times

THE APEX TIMES

International/The Apex Times/Jul 3, 5:19 AM EDT

Gold set for first weekly gain in a month as investors scale back bets on a September Fed rate hike

Spot gold rose on Friday and was on pace for its first weekly increase since late May after weaker U.S. payroll data led investors to dial down the odds of further Federal Reserve tightening.

2 min readEditor-approved Apex article

Gold prices were set for their first weekly rise in roughly a month as traders reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve would deliver another interest-rate increase in September. Spot gold rose during Friday morning trading and was on course for a weekly gain, according to market pricing cited by CNBC.

By 4:30 a.m. ET on Friday, spot gold was trading around $4,182.28 per ounce, up about 1.4% on the day and positioned for a gain of roughly 2.3% for the week. Front-month U.S. gold futures were up about 1.5% intraday, the report said.

The shift followed U.S. economic data that tempered inflation concerns and altered rate-hike expectations. CNBC reported that U.S. nonfarm payrolls released Thursday showed the American economy added 57,000 jobs in June, after a downward revision to 129,000 added in May and below the 115,000 forecast cited by the Dow Jones consensus. The market reaction, per CNBC, was a re-evaluation of the likelihood and timing of additional Fed tightening.

Ahead of the jobs report, investors had been assigning a higher probability to a September increase. CNBC said that before Thursday’s payroll release, markets were pricing in a September rate hike probability of about 65%. After the data, the odds fell to about 53.5%, based on the CME’s FedWatch tool, with rates held steady in July.

The report also tied gold’s broader 2026 performance to currency and central-bank expectations. It said a firmer U.S. dollar and a “hawkish turn” among central banks have weighed on gold prices this year, and that bullion has been under sustained pressure despite periodic rebounds. CNBC noted that gold posted its worst quarter in 13 years in the three months through June, and remains at a discount of about 22% from an all-time high above $5,300 reached in January.

Other precious metals also firmed alongside gold. CNBC reported that spot silver jumped about 2.9% to around $62.77, reflecting the same shift toward less restrictive rate expectations. With the week still in progress at the time of publication, prices were described as on track for a first weekly gain in five weeks for gold.

Investors are expected to continue monitoring forthcoming U.S. data for signs of whether the labor market cooling will persist, given the sensitivity of gold to interest-rate expectations and the U.S. dollar. The next steps for markets, according to CNBC’s framing, are largely centered on how traders update probabilities around additional Fed policy moves after the revised payrolls and their implications for inflation and growth.

Why It Matters

  • Gold’s direction is closely tied to market expectations for U.S. interest rates, which can affect borrowing costs and the dollar, feeding through to global capital markets.
  • A reduction in the estimated probability of a September Fed hike can change expectations for inflation and growth, influencing investor positioning across risk and safe-haven assets.
  • For producers, refiners, and traders, weekly moves can affect inventory decisions and hedging costs, especially after a prolonged quarterly decline.
  • The report highlights how a single macro release with revisions can quickly reprice policy expectations, underscoring the timetable risks for investors relying on interest-rate forecasts.

Sources

Key Facts

  • Spot gold rose about 1.4% on Friday morning to around $4,182.28 per ounce, and was on pace for a weekly gain of about 2.3%.
  • Front-month U.S. gold futures were up about 1.5% intraday by around 4:30 a.m. ET, according to CNBC.
  • Gold was set for its first weekly rise in five weeks, having last posted a weekly gain in late May.
  • CNBC linked the move to Thursday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showing 57,000 jobs added in June, after May was revised down to 129,000 and below the 115,000 forecast.
  • After the payroll release, the odds of a September Fed rate hike of at least a quarter point fell to about 53.5% from about 65% beforehand, based on CME’s FedWatch tool.
  • CNBC said gold has fallen this year amid concerns about inflation, a firmer dollar, and a more hawkish turn among central banks.
  • Spot silver also rose, up about 2.9% to around $62.77 per ounce, in line with gold’s rebound.
Gold set for first weekly gain in a month as investors scale back bets on a September Fed rate hike | The Apex Times