Great Hill Capital founder Tom Hayes says the “Berkshire era” of beating the S&P 500 is over, pointing to bets in PayPal and Intel

A prominent value investor is challenging the assumption that Berkshire Hathaway will remain a reliable long-term benchmark-beater. Tom Hayes, founder of Great Hill Capital, told Yahoo Finance that Berkshire’s era of sustained market outperformance is “done,” arguing it will not beat the S&P 500 over the next decade.

Hayes’ view is less about Berkshire’s business prospects than about the odds of repeat performance at scale. In the interview, he framed his position as a probabilistic bet, suggesting that even high-quality operators can struggle to outperform a broad index when returns compress and opportunity sets narrow.

Rather than look to a diversified conglomerate structure, Hayes indicated he is placing his next-cycle expectations on a barbell of individual stocks. He cited PayPal and Intel as examples of areas where he believes investors may find a better risk-reward setup than in traditional “buy-the-best” index comparisons.

Intel, whose shares trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker INTC, has been a central topic for stock pickers because the company sits at the intersection of data-center demand, foundry ambitions, and the competitive dynamics of semiconductors. In Hayes’ comments, Intel is discussed as a candidate for a more direct bet, not as a proxy for a wider market thesis.

The interview’s thrust is that investors should not assume Berkshire-style outperformance automatically continues. Hayes’ “it’s done” framing implies that the market’s composition, valuations, and the difficulty of identifying incremental advantages can make it harder for large, established portfolios to keep winning against the S&P 500.

Berkshire is typically analyzed as a collection of operating subsidiaries plus a large stock-investment portfolio. Hayes’ argument, as presented in the Yahoo Finance piece, targets the forward-looking expectation of outperformance rather than any single operational weakness at Berkshire’s businesses.

What remains unclear from the post is the specific rationale behind each individual pick, including the time horizon, valuation benchmarks, or near-term catalysts that Hayes may associate with Intel. The Yahoo Finance article also does not lay out detailed supporting numbers, such as expected margin or revenue trajectories, for Berkshire, PayPal, or Intel.