Home Depot’s shares trade 28% below peak. A new warning centers on one metric

Home Depot’s stock has slid to a point where some investors may be tempted to look for value. The Motley Fool, in a June 6 article, noted that Home Depot shares were trading about 28% below their record level as of June 4. But it argued against “jumping in” before understanding one metric that it calls the clearest read on how the retailer is performing: same-store sales, also referred to as comparable sales.

In retail, same-store sales measure revenue growth from locations that have been open long enough to be considered comparable, effectively removing the boost that comes from new store openings. The June 6 article said Home Depot’s same-store sales grew just 0.6% in fiscal 2026’s first quarter, ended May 3. It added that results were softer in prior periods, citing a 0.3% gain in fiscal 2025 and a 1.8% decline in fiscal 2024. Those comparisons, the article suggests, are a key announcement for demand conditions.

Home Depot’s own first-quarter results matched the same-store sales framing. In its May 19 earnings release, the company reported total sales of $41.8 billion, up 4.8% year over year, and comparable sales up 0.6% (with U.S. comparable sales up 0.4%). Chief executive Ted Decker said the quarter’s underlying demand was “relatively similar” to fiscal 2025, despite greater consumer uncertainty and housing affordability pressure. The release also pointed to foreign exchange as a modest tailwind to comparable sales.

Behind the headline number, the quarter showed a traffic versus ticket dynamic that matters for retailers tied to discretionary home spending. In the company’s earnings call transcript, Home Depot said its comparable average ticket rose 2.2% while comparable transactions fell 1.3%. It also reported that big-ticket transactions (over $1,000) increased 0.8%. In the same quarter, merchandise inventories ended at $27.3 billion, up $1.5 billion versus the prior year, and inventory turns were 4.2 times versus 4.3 times last year.

The company also highlighted online momentum and segment mix as partial offsets. The transcript said sales from digital platforms grew over 10% for the fourth straight quarter of double-digit growth. It also described the Pro customer side as a support, while specialty distribution platform SRS showed slightly negative comps driven by low single-digit declines in roofing. Read together, the quarter suggests that categories and customer types were not moving in unison, which can make same-store sales harder to interpret without looking at the components.

There is also broader context for why same-store sales are watched so closely at Home Depot. As a home improvement retailer, the demand for repairs, maintenance, and renovations often tracks affordability and activity in the housing market. A report by The Associated Press on the same earnings event said Home Depot navigated a housing market that remains static for many consumers, with consumers cautious as costs rise. The Motley Fool’s article similarly tied weaker comparable growth to the cyclicality of the housing-linked spending cycle and higher mortgage rates.

Still, investors should keep expectations grounded in what is actually disclosed. Home Depot’s guidance for fiscal 2026 reaffirmed comparable sales growth of approximately flat to up 2%. It did not provide a more granular outlook for same-store sales momentum quarter by quarter, nor did the June 6 article spell out additional forward indicators beyond the single focus metric. Foreign exchange, mix shifts, and customer behavior (traffic versus ticket) can also complicate conclusions drawn from one quarter’s comparable sales result. Next, the most immediate question is whether comparable sales accelerate beyond the modest pace seen in the first quarter, without deterioration in inventory discipline.

Watch for Home Depot’s next earnings update to show whether transactions regain footing, or whether customers continue to offset weaker foot traffic with higher average ticket purchases. Inventory turns will also be closely monitored because rising inventory without corresponding sales can pressure cash flow and margins. If comparable sales move toward the upper end of the company’s “flat to up 2%” range, it would help validate the idea that today’s demand softness is temporary rather than structural. If not, the market may continue to discount the stock despite total sales growth. Finally, investors will likely assess how much contribution comes from online growth and from professional customer demand.