IDC projects Apple’s first foldable iPhone will top 10 million units in its launch year

Apple’s first foldable iPhone, expected to launch in September, is projected to ship at least 10 million units in its first year, according to IDC estimates cited by Yahoo Finance. The estimate, if accurate, would put the product in the rare category of handset introductions where a new device category is expected to move meaningful volume quickly rather than ramp slowly over multiple years.

The Yahoo Finance report frames the IDC outlook around an early sales and shipping window for Apple’s foldable phone, not just speculative demand. It says the device is set to begin shipping in September and that IDC expects more than 10 million units shipped during the first year of availability. The report does not provide additional breakdowns, such as sell-through versus shipments, regional allocations, or specific pricing tiers for the foldable model.

Because the claim is based on an analyst forecast, it remains directional. Shipments are influenced by manufacturing yields, component availability, logistics readiness, and the degree to which retailers and carriers can absorb inventory. A foldable handset also carries additional technical complexity compared with traditional slabs, where durability testing and panel supply can become limiting factors during early production ramp periods.

Apple has not, in the Yahoo Finance excerpt referenced here, offered details about production targets, initial market supply, or the assumptions behind any internal demand forecast. Likewise, the cited IDC estimate is not accompanied by the methodology in the visible material, leaving open questions about whether the forecast is built on comparable historical device transitions, current premium-phone demand, or adoption rates for foldable displays.

Still, the potential scale implied by an IDC “first year” figure matters to Apple and to the broader smartphone ecosystem. If shipments exceed 10 million, it suggests Apple’s foldable entry could challenge the notion that foldables are confined to niche audiences. That, in turn, could pressure component suppliers to support foldable-specific costs, as well as influence rival smartphone makers’ product roadmaps and marketing emphasis around large-screen devices that fold into smaller footprints.

Sector watchers will also likely focus on whether Apple’s foldable iPhone follows the pattern of other major Apple hardware cycles, where initial demand can be strong but production constraints can shape early delivery times. The Yahoo Finance report, however, does not disclose delivery estimates, preorder volumes, or how quickly Apple expects to move from early batch shipments to steady-state production. Those missing pieces may determine whether the initial 10 million-plus shipping forecast is sustained or front-loaded.