THE APEX TIMES
Intel investors weigh AI-driven CPU demand against the execution risks of its foundry ramp
A recent Yahoo Finance roundup of a bullish Nikhs Substack thesis highlighted potential upside for Intel shares near $99, pointing to stronger CPU demand linked to the AI buildout and Intel Foundry’s progress on next-generation process technology. Intel, meanwhile, says it is seeing momentum in 18A yields and in factory output, even as foundry economics remain an overhang.
Intel shares have become the focus of renewed debate after Yahoo Finance published a June 8 roundup of a bullish argument for Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC). The post, attributed to a Nikhs Substack thesis, frames the wager as a turnaround story tied to the AI era: Intel’s central position in server and enterprise computing could translate into more consistent revenue, while Intel Foundry’s leading-edge manufacturing roadmap could eventually support higher-margin growth. At the time of the roundup, INTC was trading around $99.17.
The bullish case comes as Intel continues to report progress in both demand and execution. In its first-quarter 2026 results, Intel reported revenue of $13.6 billion, up 7% year over year, and said non-GAAP earnings per share attributable to Intel was $0.29. The company also guided second-quarter 2026 revenue to a range of $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion, with non-GAAP EPS attributable to Intel expected to be $0.20 at the midpoint.
Intel’s management linked the improved trajectory to AI-era CPU demand and its ability to expand available supply. In prepared remarks for its April 23, 2026 earnings call, CEO Lip-Bu Tan said the shift of AI workloads toward inference and agentic use cases is increasing the need for Intel CPUs and for wafer and advanced packaging offerings. CFO David Zinsner said better product mix and pricing actions, along with improving yields, supported non-GAAP gross margin of 41% in the quarter.
Foundry progress is a key part of Intel’s current narrative, because manufacturing technology improvements can matter for both internal products and external foundry customers. In the earnings call comments, Tan said “18A yields are now running ahead of the internal projections,” and the company described steady progress on Intel’s advanced packaging technologies, including customer backlog growth during the quarter. Intel also said in the quarter’s results release that its Intel Foundry segment revenue was $5.4 billion, up 16% year over year, while external foundry revenue was $174 million.
Even so, Intel’s foundry losses show the difficulty of the ramp. In the first quarter of 2026, Intel reported an Intel Foundry operating loss of $2.4 billion, improving by $72 million quarter over quarter. Intel said the losses were mostly offset by higher operating expenses tied to increased Intel 14A investments to support both internal and external customer evaluations, and it noted that the foundry business bears “the bulk of the costs” associated with the early ramp of 18A. That dynamic is why bulls and bears tend to disagree most sharply on timing: execution can improve, but the path to durable margin expansion remains uncertain.
Intel is also leaning on ecosystem partnerships to reinforce demand assumptions for CPUs in data centers and AI infrastructure. In its Q1 2026 release, Intel said it has a multiyear collaboration with Google for continued deployment of Intel Xeon processors across Google’s workload-optimized instances, including the latest Intel Xeon 6 processors. Intel also said Xeon 6 was selected as the host CPU for NVIDIA’s DGX Rubin NVL8 systems, and it outlined a broader heterogeneous AI inference collaboration with SambaNova that combines GPUs, SambaNova RDUs, and Intel Xeon 6 processors as host and action CPUs.
To underline the manufacturing side of the thesis, Intel has previously described Intel 18A as its leading-edge process technology, including gate-all-around transistor architecture (RibbonFET) and backside power delivery (PowerVia). In an Intel Foundry update dated August 6, 2024, the company said Intel 18A-powered products had powered on and booted operating systems and were on track for production in 2025, and it described RibbonFET and PowerVia as foundational to scale and efficiency for AI computing. Looking forward, Intel’s earnings call remarks also suggested that early design commitments for Intel 14A could emerge starting in the second half of 2026, with expansion into the first half of 2027.
Despite the optimism, important details from the bullish Yahoo Finance post are hard to independently verify from the accessible material in this workspace, and Intel itself does not offer a precise “turnaround date” for foundry profitability. The company’s quarter results and guidance do not specify a timeline for external foundry margin improvement beyond general statements about yields, throughput, and ongoing investment, while it also flagged headwinds tied to early ramp dynamics and higher input costs, including memory. Investors watching closely will likely focus on whether Intel can translate 18A yield progress into improved foundry gross margins, whether CPU order patterns remain resilient through the year, and whether packaging capacity and customer commitments convert into revenue at the pace Intel expects.
Why It Matters
- The market’s biggest swing factor for Intel is whether AI-driven CPU demand plus foundry ramp progress can show up in margins, not just revenue.
- If Intel 18A yields continue to improve while costs normalize, the company’s ability to scale foundry output could strengthen its long-term valuation case.
- Partnership indicates, such as design and deployment agreements tied to data-center AI infrastructure, can affect customer confidence during a transitional manufacturing cycle.
- The execution gap is still central to the story, because Intel Foundry losses indicate that improved yields do not automatically translate into near-term profitability.
Sources
Key Facts
- Yahoo Finance published a June 8 roundup summarizing a bullish Nikhs Substack thesis on Intel, with INTC trading around $99.17 at the time of that post.
- Intel reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $13.6 billion, up 7% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS attributable to Intel of $0.29.
- For second-quarter 2026, Intel guided revenue of $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion and non-GAAP EPS attributable to Intel of $0.20 at the midpoint.
- Intel said CPU demand is strengthening in the AI era and it is expanding available supply; management described “18A yields” as running ahead of internal projections.
- In Q1 2026, Intel Foundry revenue was $5.4 billion (up 16% year over year), with external foundry revenue of $174 million.
- Intel reported an Intel Foundry operating loss of $2.4 billion in Q1 2026, and said foundry losses were influenced by increased 14A-related investments and early ramp costs for 18A.
- Intel described ecosystem support for the CPU thesis, including a multiyear collaboration with Google and Xeon 6 as the host CPU for NVIDIA’s DGX Rubin NVL8 systems.
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