Jefferies cuts Tesla price target to $375 and flags a potential SpaceX tracking stock risk for shareholders

Jefferies has lowered its price target on Tesla to $375, according to a report highlighted by Yahoo Finance on June 22, and simultaneously pointed to what it characterized as an emerging structural risk for shareholders tied to the possibility of a future combination with SpaceX.

In the post, Jefferies did not argue that Tesla’s core business is disappearing. Instead, it focused on how expectations around a potential Tesla-SpaceX arrangement could change the risk profile for public shareholders, particularly if the market begins to price in a specific corporate structure before details are known.

A key element of Jefferies’ concern, as described in the market coverage, is the possibility of a “tracking stock” approach. Tracking stock is a class of equity designed to reflect the performance of a particular business segment, while still being issued by the overall parent company. In theory, investors can gain exposure to a target unit’s fortunes without the entire company being reorganized into a separate, standalone subsidiary.

Jefferies’ note suggests that if market participants build valuation assumptions around a tracking stock tied to SpaceX or a SpaceX-linked combination, shareholders could face downside if the arrangement does not materialize as expected, or if the tracking mechanism creates limits on economic rights, governance, or timing. The underlying worry is not the existence of a space business connection, but the way complex corporate mechanics can shift risk away from a straightforward equity claim.

The report coverage also framed the issue as structural rather than purely cyclical. That distinction matters because structural risks, unlike near-term operational headwinds, can persist and may be difficult for ordinary financial performance metrics to fully address. If Jefferies is correct that the market is beginning to price in optionality around a corporate combination, then the valuation becomes more sensitive to deal terms than to Tesla’s current results alone.

Beyond the tracking stock concept, the market post did not provide additional disclosed details on timing, contemplated governance provisions, or how any segment attribution would be calculated. In other words, the coverage indicates Jefferies sees a risk category developing, but it does not, in the material referenced here, specify what specific deal terms or valuation methodologies are under consideration.

Tesla, meanwhile, continues to trade as a single public company with a clear line of business: electric vehicles, energy generation and storage products, and related services. The company’s broader ties to SpaceX have long been a topic of investor interest, but the market coverage highlighted this week is about the potential for a future corporate structure to change how public-market value is allocated.

For investors and analysts, the next question is what Jefferies ultimately means by “structural risk.” If it is primarily about how a tracking stock might limit or complicate shareholders’ economic exposure, then upcoming corporate filings, deal communications, or changes to capital-structure plans would be the most direct indicates. If it is about valuation expectations that the firm believes are too optimistic, then future analyst notes and consensus estimate revisions could show whether the risk framing spreads across other Wall Street desks.