Joe Musgrove’s long return timeline hits a new milestone, energizing Padres ace hopes on the waiver wire

Fantasy baseball waiver wire attention is shifting toward San Diego’s rotation as Joe Musgrove moves closer to a big-league return after recovering from Tommy John surgery performed in October 2024. According to Yahoo Sports, the comeback has taken longer than anyone expected, but the latest Triple-A starts have offered a more encouraging sign than the previous phases of his rehab.

The key detail driving the buzz is velocity. Yahoo Sports reported that Musgrove is averaging 95.0 mph with his fastball in two Triple-A starts. The same report frames that output as a change from his pre-injury form, noting it is two mph faster than when he posted a 3.21 ERA across 66 starts with the Padres from 2022 through 2024.

From a scouting and workload standpoint, the importance is not just that the radar gun number looks higher, but that Musgrove appears to be sustaining his fastball in live games at Triple-A while transitioning through the final stage of a major surgical recovery. For a pitcher, that matters because Tommy John comebacks can be measured in incremental steps: first durability, then command, then full extension and pitch timing. Velocity being up early in the sequence is typically a positive indicator for the later stages, even if it does not automatically translate to immediate major-league results.

The same Yahoo Sports waiver wire column also put Pedro Ramírez and Henry Bolte on the fantasy radar. However, the provided information emphasizes Musgrove as the centerpiece of the week’s “pick up steals” theme, describing the overall usefulness of adding players before their roles become clearer. That general waiver-wire framing suggests a short window where teams and pitchers can be trending upward in the minors, leaving fantasy managers positioned to benefit if the call-up or role expansion follows.

For the Padres, the broader roster picture is shaped by what an ace-caliber starter can do to a pitching staff’s leverage. Even without assuming an immediate return date, Musgrove’s velocity rebound and continued progress in Triple-A provide a storyline that could eventually stabilize how San Diego manages innings across the back half of the season. If his command and pitch mix keep developing, a late-summer reintroduction could change how the Padres distribute starts and manage bullpen days.

Still, the caveat is straightforward: Triple-A velocity is a promising input, not a finished product. The final test is how Musgrove performs against major-league hitters, particularly whether hitters can shorten the reaction window on fastballs if his location and sequencing do not fully match his pre-surgery profile. What to watch next is whether his Triple-A outings continue to show both sustained pace and the ability to miss bats or induce weak contact, which would support a graduation to San Diego’s rotation.