JPMorgan expects a strong Q3 for Europe’s oil and gas earnings, highlights Shell, BP and Eni

JPMorgan is looking for a strong third-quarter (Q3) earnings season for European oil and gas companies, according to a report distributed by Yahoo Finance. The bank’s focus is on refining, arguing that refinery-related performance could provide the earnings lift that investors are watching for as results land over the next several weeks.

In its view, the strongest relative setup is for integrated majors with large refining operations. JPMorgan singled out Shell and BP among the U.K.-based “supermajors,” and also pointed to Eni as another company it is inclined to favor going into Q3.

The bank’s framing suggests that company-level stock performance in Europe’s energy space may hinge less on broad demand assumptions and more on the direction of refining margins and other refining-linked dynamics. That is a shift from narratives that have centered only on production volumes or energy demand growth, and it places near-term profitability quality at the center of the earnings outlook.

JPMorgan’s note also implied selectivity rather than a blanket endorsement of all names in the sector. The report’s wording, as reflected in Yahoo Finance’s description, stresses favoring particular “major” companies rather than encouraging broad exposure across European oil and gas broadly.

Market context matters here because the European upstream and integrated sector has continued to move in response to shifts in crude supply, product demand, and refining economics. Refining profitability can change quickly with fuel product spreads and global refinery utilization, which often makes Q3 earnings outcomes more uneven than investors might expect from headline revenue alone.

The companies JPMorgan highlighted are among the region’s best-known integrated players. Shell and BP each have large refining footprints and global marketing operations, while Eni is a major Italian integrated energy company with exposure to both upstream and downstream performance. In such businesses, quarterly earnings can be influenced by whether refining margins move in the “right” direction during the quarter.

Still, the Yahoo Finance report description does not provide details such as specific earnings forecasts, price targets, or the precise refining metrics JPMorgan is using. It also does not outline whether the bank expects outperformance to come from earnings beats, margin expansion, or improved guidance. Those elements, if discussed in JPMorgan’s full note, were not included in the information visible in the referenced posting.

For investors and analysts tracking the earnings calendar, the immediate watch items are what happens to refining economics during the quarter and whether companies’ commentary confirms JPMorgan’s emphasis. If Q3 results show that refining-linked earnings held up as expected, it could reinforce JPMorgan’s selection approach; if margins weaken, the bank’s favorites may face a more challenging comparison in subsequent quarters.