Malachi Toney and Keelon Russell are among the Heisman “dark horse” cases to watch in 2026

The 2026 Heisman Trophy race is already being framed as unpredictable, and that matters because voters tend to reward production that looks not just impressive, but inevitable. This summer’s “dark horse” talk is built around a simple premise, a player who is not penciled in as a frontrunner can jump into the national spotlight if his team context and workload line up early and keep them on the ballot through November.

One of the most specific cases floating to the top is Miami wide receiver Malachi Toney. A to Z Sports pointed to how productive he was as a freshman, totaling 109 receptions for 1,211 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2025, a statistical baseline that suggests he can generate the kind of highlight-driven yardage and scoring that often travels well to Heisman voters.

The argument for Toney goes beyond targets and receptions. The same report also described him as an all-around weapon in Miami’s offense and return game, which is a pathway to “extra value” that can make a receiver’s season stand out even when quarterbacks dominate volume stats. If Miami’s scheme creates steady opportunities against a mix of opponents, Toney’s ceiling becomes more than just a big-play reputation. It becomes a numbers story voters can track week to week.

Toney’s profile also helps explain why non-traditional Heisman winners keep resurfacing in these preseason discussions. On3 cited recent history in which past Heisman winners arrived with little preseason buzz relative to other names. The common thread in that comparison is that a late-accepted player can look like the award’s most complete solution once their season begins to stack up.

Another “dark horse” name tied to the 2026 conversation is Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell. According to Roll Tide Wire, Russell has been included among the potential long shots after being named a dark horse Heisman candidate. The more nuanced part of the case comes from uncertainty around Alabama’s quarterback pecking order, which matters because Heisman candidacy depends on starting-level reps, not just talent.

The same A to Z Sports breakdown framed Russell’s path as a timing issue, noting he had not yet been declared Alabama’s starting quarterback when the piece was published. That distinction matters because a quarterback can only build a Heisman résumé if he is consistently the offense’s driver. The report also connected Russell’s opportunity to what Ty Simpson did a year prior, suggesting Russell’s step forward would need to be visible in production and decision-making rather than just potential.

At the broader level, this kind of “dark horse” framing is usually an attempt to identify the voter-friendly combination of workload and narrative. The NCAA spotlight tends to crystallize around quarterbacks, but the Heisman ballot has also shown openness when a player’s impact becomes hard to ignore in multiple phases of the game, or when a program makes an unexpected national push.

For fans tracking the race from August into September, the practical watch items are clear. With Toney, look for early target volume and whether his role expands into touches that affect games beyond receiving. With Russell, the first question is simply whether Alabama’s offense settles into a starting rhythm that lets him accumulate the kind of passing and playmaking footprint that voters expect from a Heisman contender. The rest will sort itself out as the season turns competitive and the candidates are forced to survive real games, not summer storylines.