Middle East experts say latest U.S.-Iran escalation centers on Strait of Hormuz as analysts warn of higher risks for shipping

The latest escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict is playing out as both sides appear to compete for leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, a group of Middle East experts told PBS NewsHour in a discussion on developments in the Persian Gulf. The program, hosted by Nick Schifrin, featured two analysts who offered different backgrounds on Iran’s strategic priorities and on U.S. diplomacy connected to the Iran nuclear talks era.

Alan Eyre, who has worked on Iran policy after serving on the Obama administration’s negotiating team for the Iran nuclear deal and who now works at the Middle East Institute, said the current standoff should be understood through the strategic and negotiating logic that has shaped U.S.-Iran engagement in recent decades. In the interview, Eyre focused on how maritime chokepoints and regional leverage can become central to U.S. and Iranian decision-making, particularly when tensions rise and direct diplomacy becomes harder to sustain.

Miad Maleki, who was born and raised in Iran and now works at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, addressed the conflict through Iran’s perspective and the ways internal and external pressure can influence Tehran’s posture. Maleki’s remarks, as presented on the program, connected Iran’s broader objectives in the region to the immediate security stakes in the Strait of Hormuz, an area through which a substantial share of global shipping passes.

In their exchange, the experts discussed how control or effective influence in and around the strait can affect regional stability and escalation dynamics, including the risk that miscalculation could draw additional actors into a broader confrontation. They also discussed constraints on policy options for Washington and Tehran, including the political and strategic costs of actions that might heighten confrontation while limiting space for negotiation.

The conversation came as the U.S.-Iran conflict has been marked by recurring friction that analysts say can rapidly shift between direct confrontation and deterrence. Schifrin’s framing in the episode centered on the practical question of how the two countries are likely to think about leverage at Hormuz as a driver of both short-term security decisions and longer-term bargaining behavior.

While the interview did not present a single new policy announcement by either government, it offered an expert assessment of why the strait remains a focal point whenever tensions increase. For U.S. officials and regional partners, the issue is likely to remain tied to public safety and the continuity of maritime trade, as well as to the ability of governments to manage escalation under pressure.