Morgan Stanley expects AI-linked debt issuance to surge past $570 billion in 2026

Morgan Stanley has forecast that global debt issuance connected to artificial intelligence will more than double in 2026, potentially topping $570 billion, according to market reporting on the bank’s outlook.

The projection is rooted in what Morgan Stanley says is already happening in 2026 bond markets. By May, issuance linked to AI has reached nearly $236 billion, the report says, which is described as roughly four times the level recorded in the same period of the prior year.

The forecast implies that the market is likely to remain active through the second half of 2026, with issuance expanding further after May rather than simply running at the same pace as earlier in the year. While the estimates point to a fast-growing segment of capital markets activity, the reporting does not detail which specific industries or financing structures Morgan Stanley is counting as “AI debt.”

Reuters, in separate coverage, similarly described Morgan Stanley’s view that AI-related global debt issuance in 2026 would rise to nearly $570 billion, framing it as growth driven by rising bond activity tied to the technology buildout.

To investors and companies, “AI debt issuance” generally refers to bond fundraising linked to the costs of developing, deploying, or expanding AI systems, such as funding for data centers, computing infrastructure, software development, or related corporate investment. In practice, the category can be broader or narrower depending on the methodology used to tag deals, including whether it is limited to issuers explicitly labeled as AI-focused or includes companies whose expenditures are tied to AI.

Capital markets activity of this type matters because it can affect funding availability and pricing across corporate credit markets. If AI-linked issuance is increasing quickly, it can also concentrate underwriting and investor demand in sectors perceived as benefiting from the AI buildout, potentially influencing risk premiums and liquidity across other segments of high-yield and investment-grade debt.

Still, the publicly reported numbers leave key questions unanswered. The reporting provides the topline totals and year-to-year comparisons but does not disclose Morgan Stanley’s definitions, whether the forecast covers only new debt issuance or also refinancings, or what assumptions it uses about growth in AI spending and credit conditions. The reports also do not specify how much of the 2026 total is expected to come from particular currencies, regions, or rating categories.

What to watch next is whether Morgan Stanley’s projection is echoed by other banks’ credit outlooks and whether bond issuance data for the remainder of 2026 continues to track the run-rate implied by May’s nearly $236 billion. The trajectory of issuance will likely provide the clearest announcement of whether the AI-linked funding surge accelerates, normalizes, or slows as rates and investor appetite evolve.