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Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX revenue could reach $3.4T by 2040, WSJ report says
The Apex Times

THE APEX TIMES

Business/The Apex Times/Jun 7, 1:28 AM EDT

Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX revenue could reach $3.4T by 2040, WSJ report says

A Morgan Stanley forecast cited by the Wall Street Journal points to a multi-trillion-dollar revenue trajectory for SpaceX by 2040, hinging heavily on the company’s AI business.

By The Apex Times Newsroom2 min readAI-assisted Apex article

Morgan Stanley is projecting that SpaceX revenue could reach $3.4 trillion by 2040, according to a Wall Street Journal report that cited people familiar with the bank’s projections. The forecast, as reported, is tied to expectations that SpaceX’s AI-related activities will expand sharply over the coming years. Reuters summary of WSJ report

In the WSJ account, Morgan Stanley also points to near-term scale-up driven by AI. The bank expects AI-related revenue to contribute about $190 billion in 2030, alongside total SpaceX revenue expected to be near $330 billion that year. Reuters summary of WSJ report

The reported forecast contrasts with SpaceX’s recent financial performance. SpaceX revenue increased to $18.67 billion in 2025 from $14.02 billion in 2024, while the company swung to a net loss of $4.94 billion from a profit of $791 million a year earlier, according to the Reuters write-up of the WSJ report. Reuters summary of WSJ report

The Reuters summary also breaks out AI performance, saying SpaceX’s AI segment generated $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025. That figure is used in the context of the larger multi-decade projection, which assumes substantial growth from that base. Reuters summary of WSJ report

The figures land as SpaceX begins its IPO roadshow, with Reuters reporting that Elon Musk’s company started meeting investors on Thursday and is aiming to raise $75 billion - described in the report as potentially the biggest IPO ever. Morgan Stanley is listed as one of the lead underwriters alongside other major banks. Reuters summary of WSJ report

Morgan Stanley did not comment on the report in the Reuters account, and Reuters said it could not independently verify the numbers. The forecast therefore should be treated as a projection tied to confidential assumptions rather than a disclosure from either Morgan Stanley or SpaceX. Reuters summary of WSJ report

Why It Matters

  • The projection underscores how central AI assumptions are to the market narrative for SpaceX’s future growth - especially for an IPO that will likely be scrutinized against long-dated revenue expectations.
  • A multi-trillion-dollar revenue target by 2040, even as a projection, highlights the risk that valuation discussions may depend on outcomes that are difficult to validate in the near term.
  • Because Morgan Stanley and Reuters did not verify the figures independently, the forecast functions more as a window into underwriting expectations than as an announced company target.
  • If the IPO proceeds on similar assumptions, investors may focus heavily on what portion of future cash flow could plausibly come from AI rather than core space and satellite operations.

Sources

Key Facts

  • Morgan Stanley projected SpaceX could reach $3.4 trillion in annual revenue by 2040, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.
  • The forecast scenario assumed SpaceX’s AI business would contribute about $190 billion of revenue in 2030.
  • Total SpaceX revenue was expected to be near $330 billion in 2030 in the reported Morgan Stanley scenario.
  • SpaceX revenue was reported to have risen to $18.67 billion in 2025, from $14.02 billion in 2024, while net income swung to a $4.94 billion net loss.
  • The Reuters account said SpaceX’s AI segment revenue was $3.2 billion in 2025.
  • Reuters reported that SpaceX began IPO investor meetings and aimed to raise $75 billion, with Morgan Stanley among lead underwriters.

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Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX revenue could reach $3.4T by 2040, WSJ report says | The Apex Times