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Morgan Stanley’s SpaceX IPO Pitch Leans on a $3.4 Trillion Revenue Projection for 2040
The Apex Times

THE APEX TIMES

Business/The Apex Times/Jun 7, 8:23 PM EDT

Morgan Stanley’s SpaceX IPO Pitch Leans on a $3.4 Trillion Revenue Projection for 2040

Ahead of SpaceX’s Nasdaq listing, the bank circulated a long-range model suggesting the rocket and satellite company’s revenue could reach $3.4 trillion in 2040, with adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 trillion, driven largely by a fast-growing AI business.

By The Apex Times Newsroom3 min readAI-assisted Apex article

SpaceX’s initial public offering is moving from paperwork to investor meetings, and the pitch deck includes some of the most ambitious long-term economics yet attached to the deal. According to a Wall Street Journal report cited in market coverage, Morgan Stanley has told investors that SpaceX revenue could rise to $3.4 trillion by 2040, a jump described as 182-fold from the company’s current scale.

The forecast also calls for SpaceX adjusted EBITDA, a profitability measure that starts with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization and then applies company-defined adjustments, to reach about $2.7 trillion in 2040. The same coverage states Morgan Stanley expects the AI business to be the main growth engine, with AI revenue projected to climb to $190 billion by 2030, from roughly $3.2 billion in 2025.

Morgan Stanley’s model, as summarized by market reporters, projects total SpaceX revenue to be near $330 billion in 2030, and adjusted EBITDA to top $230 billion that year. SpaceX’s latest reported baseline remains far smaller than those projections: Reuters, citing figures discussed in the context of the IPO, said SpaceX revenue was $18.67 billion in 2025, after rising from $14.02 billion the prior year, and the company swung to a net loss of $4.94 billion.

As SpaceX prepares to meet investors, the projections are landing at a moment when the offering itself is taking visible shape. SpaceX said it launched the IPO roadshow on June 4, 2026, for an offering of 555,555,555 shares of its Class A common stock, plus an option for underwriters to purchase an additional 83,333,333 shares. SpaceX said the initial public offering price was expected to be $135.00 per share and that it has applied to list under the ticker symbol SPCX on Nasdaq Global Select and Nasdaq Texas.

Morgan Stanley is also embedded in the deal’s execution. SpaceX’s IPO communication named Morgan Stanley as one of the book-running managers, alongside Goldman Sachs, BofA Securities, Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, and others. Using SpaceX’s stated share count and expected price, the base offering would imply roughly $75 billion in gross proceeds before any underwriter option shares, underwriting fees, or other adjustments.

For Morgan Stanley, SpaceX is the kind of blockbuster client relationship that can drive underwriting and advisory activity, while also testing how well banks can translate speculative, far-dated industry narratives into modelable numbers. For the market, the question is whether AI and “ecosystem” growth assumptions can bridge the gap between SpaceX’s current financial profile and the multi-trillion-dollar run-rate implied by the 2040 figures.

Still, significant details remain outside public view. Neither Morgan Stanley nor SpaceX publicly released the underlying assumptions, scenario ranges, or methodology behind the specific 2040 and 2030 adjusted EBITDA figures described in reporting. In addition, Reuters reported that Morgan Stanley declined to comment and that Reuters could not independently verify the Wall Street Journal-reported forecast, underscoring that the numbers are projections relayed through third-party accounts rather than company-confirmed disclosures.

Why It Matters

  • The projections intensify scrutiny on whether Wall Street can credibly underwrite the economics of SpaceX’s AI ambitions, not just its launch and satellite businesses.
  • If investors anchor on multi-trillion-dollar outcomes, the deal’s pricing could reflect a more optimistic scenario than what the company’s recent financials suggest.
  • The IPO roadshow and the bank’s modeling highlight how investment banks are positioning AI-driven “ecosystem” narratives as central value drivers for legacy capital-intensive industries.

Sources

Key Facts

  • Morgan Stanley’s long-range forecast, reported as coming from a note circulated ahead of SpaceX’s IPO, projects SpaceX revenue of $3.4 trillion in 2040 (described as 182-fold growth).
  • The same reporting said the model projects adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 trillion by 2040.
  • Reuters said SpaceX generated $18.67 billion in revenue in 2025 and reported a net loss of $4.94 billion, with AI revenue of $3.2 billion.
  • SpaceX launched its IPO roadshow on June 4, 2026, for 555,555,555 shares of Class A common stock and applied to list under ticker symbol SPCX.
  • SpaceX said the IPO price was expected to be $135.00 per share and identified Morgan Stanley as a book-running manager for the proposed offering.

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