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Morgan Stanley Says SpaceX’s Revenue Could Reach $3.4 Trillion by 2040, Tied to a Rapid Ramp in AI
The Apex Times

THE APEX TIMES

Business/The Apex Times/Jun 7, 7:06 PM EDT

Morgan Stanley Says SpaceX’s Revenue Could Reach $3.4 Trillion by 2040, Tied to a Rapid Ramp in AI

The projection, reported through an IPO roadshow context, underscores how Wall Street is trying to value SpaceX as more than a rocket-and-satellite business.

By The Apex Times Newsroom3 min readAI-assisted Apex article

Morgan Stanley is projecting that SpaceX could generate as much as $3.4 trillion in annual revenue by 2040, according to a Wall Street Journal report cited by Reuters. The figures were framed around an investor roadshow for SpaceX’s initial public offering, with the long-range outlook hinging heavily on growth from SpaceX’s artificial intelligence operations.

Reuters reported that Morgan Stanley expects SpaceX’s AI business to contribute about $190 billion of revenue in 2030, when total revenue is expected to be near $330 billion. For context on where that growth would start, SpaceX’s revenue rose to $18.67 billion in 2025 from $14.02 billion in 2024, and the company swung to a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025 from a profit of $791 million the year before, Reuters said.

In the same reporting, Reuters said SpaceX’s AI segment generated $3.2 billion of revenue in 2025. That matters because it implies the AI unit would need to scale dramatically from a relatively smaller revenue base to become the dominant driver of overall company sales in the late 2020s and into the next decade.

The projection arrived as SpaceX began meeting with investors on Thursday as part of its IPO roadshow, Reuters said. SpaceX is aiming to raise $75 billion in the offering, which Reuters described as the biggest IPO ever. Morgan Stanley is listed by Reuters as one of the lead underwriters for the deal, along with Goldman Sachs, BofA Securities, Citigroup, and J.P. Morgan.

Morgan Stanley’s view also sits alongside other Wall Street banks’ expectations for the AI side of SpaceX. Reuters said Goldman Sachs is expecting revenue from SpaceX’s AI division to surge to $322 billion by 2030, citing a Financial Times report. Together, the two forecasts point to a market narrative in which artificial intelligence monetization is treated as the central valuation engine, even as SpaceX’s rockets, launches, and satellite services remain part of the portfolio.

A spokesperson for Morgan Stanley declined to comment, and Reuters said it could not independently verify the specific report. That caveat is important, because long-dated revenue targets for private companies are often sensitive to assumptions about adoption rates, pricing power, regulatory constraints, and capital intensity, none of which can be validated from a brief market report.

What to watch next is whether SpaceX’s roadshow disclosures, investor Q-and-A, or eventual offering documents clarify how the company and its underwriters link AI growth to concrete revenue sources, customer contracts, and cost trajectories. If the IPO materials emphasize that path, the market may treat the trillion-dollar-by-2040 revenue level as a “base case” style target rather than a purely aspirational figure, even though investors are likely to focus most on nearer-term milestones like the scale of AI revenue in the 2026 to 2030 window.

Why It Matters

  • The projections highlight how investors may increasingly value SpaceX based on AI monetization rather than only launch services or satellite revenues.
  • The scale of the forecast underscores the role underwriters want AI to play in supporting long-term valuation narratives during an IPO roadshow.
  • With multiple banks pointing to very large AI revenue numbers by 2030, expectations may become a benchmark the market will test against future disclosures.
  • The lack of independent verification and a declined comment leave open how confidently the projections can be translated into near-term, trackable results.

Sources

Key Facts

  • Morgan Stanley is projecting SpaceX revenue could reach $3.4 trillion by 2040, as reported by the Wall Street Journal and cited by Reuters.
  • Morgan Stanley expects SpaceX’s AI business to contribute about $190 billion in revenue by 2030, when total revenue is expected to be near $330 billion.
  • SpaceX revenue increased to $18.67 billion in 2025 from $14.02 billion in 2024, and the company reported a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025.
  • Reuters reported that SpaceX’s AI segment generated $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025.
  • SpaceX began IPO roadshow meetings with investors, aiming to raise $75 billion, described as the biggest IPO on record.
  • Morgan Stanley is listed as a lead underwriter for the IPO alongside Goldman Sachs, BofA Securities, Citigroup, and J.P. Morgan.

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Morgan Stanley Says SpaceX’s Revenue Could Reach $3.4 Trillion by 2040, Tied to a Rapid Ramp in AI | The Apex Times