Morgan Stanley Warns Asian LNG Prices Could Rise More Than 30% on Summer Demand and European Restocking

Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices could jump by more than 30% over the forward curve, according to Morgan Stanley analysts, who point to a seasonal demand pickup in Asia and a separate push by Europe to rebuild gas inventories before winter.

In a forecast reported by Yahoo Finance, Morgan Stanley said hotter weather and tighter supply conditions could push the benchmark higher, with the bank’s estimate implying prices around $25 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in the third and fourth quarters of 2026.

, citing the same Morgan Stanley view carried by Bloomberg, described the expected move as the sharpest rise to the Asian LNG benchmark in roughly three and a half years. The article said the forecast assumes demand has been recovering in parts of Asia after weaker LNG consumption and buying earlier this year, with buyers preparing for summer power needs.

The bank’s argument is tied to electricity demand, which typically rises as temperatures increase and utilities seek additional fuel for power generation. Morgan Stanley analysts also linked the outlook to Europe’s storage refill cycle, saying replenishment needs can tighten the global LNG balance even when spot supply conditions improve.

also reported that the pricing pressure could persist even if disruptions along shipping routes ease. It specifically mentioned the Strait of Hormuz reopening and restored LNG cargo traffic as factors that, in Morgan Stanley’s view, would not by themselves prevent the projected price rise.

Morgan Stanley did not issue a public earnings-related statement in the material reviewed here, and no additional detail from the bank’s own publications was provided in the Yahoo Finance item. The forecast therefore should be treated as an analyst note summary, with the exact assumptions and contract-specific implications not spelled out in the reporting.

The broader context is that LNG is traded globally through a mix of long-term contracts and spot cargoes, and prices in Asia often reflect the tug-of-war between regional power demand and Europe’s ability to pull LNG into its market when storage levels are low. When European utilities scramble to restock, Asian buyers can face fewer available cargoes or higher delivered costs, particularly during periods of rising summer demand.

What to watch next is whether the drivers cited by Morgan Stanley show up in actual procurement behavior. That includes evidence of sustained LNG purchasing in Asia ahead of peak temperatures, and whether European buyers continue to refill storage at a pace that drains supply from other markets. A second check point will be whether weather patterns and gas storage levels in Europe match the bank’s timing assumptions for the late-2026 price path.