New incrementality study finds Google’s AI Overviews did not weaken paid search performance

Google’s rollout of AI Overviews, which generate on-page summaries for some search queries, has not undermined performance in paid search advertising, according to new incrementality findings shared by Measured.

The study, as described in a Yahoo Finance report, evaluated advertising outcomes across 139 brands. Measured’s analysis found that incremental revenue and incremental orders increased after the introduction of AI Overviews, indicating advertisers were not simply redirecting budget from paid clicks into the new AI-driven experience.

Incrementality, in this context, is meant to isolate what advertisers would not have gained without the AI Overviews feature. Instead of treating overall ad results as a single lump, the approach aims to measure incremental lift, which analysts and marketers often view as a more decision-relevant announcement when new product surfaces appear.

The report characterizes the results as evidence that the AI summaries did not erode the value of paid placements for advertisers. In other words, while AI Overviews changed how information is presented on the Search results page, the study suggests the effect on conversion-related outcomes was positive rather than negative.

For Alphabet, the implication is practical: AI Overviews sit at the center of Google Search’s user experience and monetization strategy. If the AI layer were to reduce the number of high-intent users who proceed to paid ads, that could have raised questions about advertiser ROI at a time when Google faces rising scrutiny and intense competition in search and ads technology.

Google has positioned its AI features as a way to help users answer questions more directly on the results page. But with any new on-page experience, advertisers and agencies typically worry about whether the change will shift user behavior away from paid links, forcing them to recalibrate budgets, targeting, and creative.

The Yahoo Finance report does not provide the full study methodology in its headline description, nor does it disclose the specific percentage changes, time horizon, geographic scope, or the brands’ vertical mix within the excerpt available here. It also does not specify whether the increase in incremental revenue and orders is universal across all ad formats or only within certain query categories where AI Overviews appear.

Still, if the findings hold up in broader disclosures, they suggest Google may be able to expand AI Overviews without immediately damaging the core economics of paid search. Advertisers and measurement firms will likely look next for more granular breakdowns, including whether results differ by industry, campaign type, and the intensity of AI Overview exposure.