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NYT/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll shows Josh Shapiro leading Stacy Garrity by 16 points in Pennsylvania governor race
The Apex Times

THE APEX TIMES

Politics/The Apex Times/Aug 25, 4:06 PM EDT

NYT/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll shows Josh Shapiro leading Stacy Garrity by 16 points in Pennsylvania governor race

A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University survey of likely voters in Pennsylvania found Gov. Josh Shapiro supported by 55 percent of respondents, compared with 39 percent for Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity.

By The Apex Times Newsroom2 min readAI-assisted Apex article

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is leading Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity by 16 points in a new poll of likely voters, according to results from a survey conducted for The New York Times, the Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena University and reported by The Hill on Tuesday.

The poll found 55 percent of likely voters backed Shapiro, while 39 percent supported Garrity in the gubernatorial contest. A further 6 percent said they supported another candidate or were undecided, producing the overall 16-point advantage for Shapiro when comparing the two leading figures.

The survey, which focused on likely voters in the Keystone State, was released as both candidates seek to frame the direction of Pennsylvania’s state government for the next term. Shapiro, a Democrat, is running for reelection, while Garrity, a Republican, is seeking the governorship after serving as Pennsylvania’s state treasurer.

While the poll offers a snapshot of voter preferences at a specific point in time, it does not, by itself, resolve questions about turnout, voter enthusiasm, or how voters who remain undecided could shift as campaigns progress. The distribution of support among the two leading candidates, however, provides a concrete measure of where the race stands in this particular dataset.

The polling comes amid scrutiny of state-level spending and policy choices, with Pennsylvania voters regularly weighing issues that include taxes, regulatory burdens, and the administration of public programs. In state executive races, voters also often assess public safety and the pace of governance during the current term, questions that can shape how likely voters evaluate candidates on both sides.

For Garrity, the poll indicates the need to narrow the gap with Shapiro among likely voters while persuading voters who are not currently committed to either candidate. For Shapiro, the findings suggest continued support among likely voters, but also that a meaningful share of the electorate is not represented by the two top numbers, leaving room for changes in response to future developments.

The Hill reported the poll results as part of a broader coverage of the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race. Additional polling and campaign updates would be expected to further test whether the 16-point difference persists across different voter groups and levels of voter commitment.

Why It Matters

  • The 16-point gap provides a current quantitative benchmark for how likely voters in Pennsylvania view the matchup between Shapiro and Garrity.
  • The inclusion of undecided or other-candidate support (6 percent) highlights that the race could still change if those voters move toward one candidate.
  • As both campaigns advance, the polling snapshot can influence how each side prioritizes messaging and outreach, especially in persuadable segments of the likely electorate.
  • Because the poll focuses on likely voters, it is designed to reflect expected election turnout patterns rather than the broader electorate.

Sources

Key Facts

  • A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania found Gov. Josh Shapiro at 55 percent.
  • The same poll found Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity at 39 percent.
  • The resulting margin between the two leading candidates was 16 points (55 percent minus 39 percent).
  • The poll reported that 6 percent of likely voters supported another candidate or were undecided.
  • The poll results were reported by The Hill on Aug. 25, 2026.