Ohio State’s pass efficiency versus Maryland’s challenge: analytics frame a Week 6 matchup

Ohio State heads into Week 6 with one of its clearest statistical messages coming from pass efficiency. According to Yahoo Sports’ “Scarlet Spreadsheet” analytics, the Buckeyes rank No. 1 in EPA/Pass while also ranking No. 67 in EPA/Rush. That gap sets up a matchup problem that is as much about play selection and down-to-down tendencies as it is about raw talent.

In modern college football, expected points and EPA-based models are used to translate a play into its impact on win probability. EPA/Pass and EPA/Rush are commonly treated as complementary lenses: one describes how often a team’s passing plays move the offense toward scoring, and the other captures the same effect for rushing plays. When a team profiles as elite in one category and relatively weaker in the other, opponents can often plan to funnel the ball into the lower-efficiency lane, forcing the higher-efficiency lane to carry more of the load for longer stretches.

For Ohio State, the analytics description implies a team identity that leans into passing as the most reliable pathway to positive outcomes. A No. 1 ranking in EPA/Pass suggests their aerial game is consistently producing drives that are more likely to end in points, third-down conversions, or at least sustained field position gains. Meanwhile, the No. 67 EPA/Rush ranking indicates that the run game, at least in terms of average expected points produced per rushing attempt, has not been as consistently value-adding over the same sample.

Maryland’s side of the equation is how to respond to that kind of split. If an opponent can reduce the effectiveness of a team’s passing by disguising looks, pressuring the pocket, or taking away key intermediate windows, the inability to generate comparable EPA on the ground becomes more consequential. In that sense, Ohio State’s Rutgers-style “make you defend the whole field” pass model is only as safe as its ability to punish defensive adjustments, and Maryland’s best path would typically be to make long passing drives feel more like short-lived bursts rather than steady erosion of the defense.

There is also a practical football component behind the numbers: EPA is outcome-weighted. A run can be “solid” in a traditional sense while still underperforming an EPA model if it settles the offense into predictable downs, stalls drive momentum, or fails to generate enough explosiveness to prevent negative downstream sequences. Conversely, a passing game can show high EPA if it frequently creates advantageous play states, even if it includes some incompletions.

What to watch next in the Ohio State-Maryland matchup is whether Ohio State can keep the pass game operating at the same level implied by the No. 1 EPA/Pass rank, and whether the Buckeyes can stop Maryland from turning rushing into a low-leverage default. If Ohio State’s play-calling remains pass-forward without losing third-down efficiency, the analytics trend would likely hold. If Maryland forces the Buckeyes into more rushing attempts that fail to earn EPA value, the Week 6 framing would pivot from “elite aerial efficiency” to “how quickly the run game must become functional.”

One caveat: these rankings summarize efficiency through an EPA model, not complete team strength. They do not fully account for matchup-specific coverage schemes, game script, turnover variance, or special teams swings that can change how often a team reaches certain down-and-distance patterns. Still, the stark contrast between No. 1 and No. 67 offers a compact narrative for how this game could be managed play-by-play.

Ultimately, the matchup picture is shaped by a straightforward question. Can Ohio State sustain the kind of pass-driven expected points production that its model indicates, or will Maryland’s defensive planning make the Buckeyes’ lower EPA rushing profile show up more often than Ohio State would like? The answer will determine whether this Week 6 matchup stays a test of aerial efficiency or becomes a referendum on Ohio State’s ability to balance the run.