Ontario Teachers’ early SpaceX stake, flagged by a Tesla commentator, could translate into a $11.6 billion paper gain ahead of Nasdaq debut

A Tesla commentator is putting a spotlight on Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan’s early investment in SpaceX, suggesting the pension fund could see a sizable paper windfall if SpaceX’s planned valuation hits its target during an upcoming Nasdaq debut.

The discussion centers on a roughly $300 million investment made in 2019 through Ontario Teachers’ newly formed technology investing arm, then called Teachers’ Venture Growth. At the time of that investment, SpaceX was valued at about $33 billion to $36 billion, according to the report drawing attention to the stake.

In the run-up to the listing, Tech investor and commentator Sawyer Merritt highlighted the potential return on that early position, pointing to a target IPO valuation around $1.75 trillion. If that valuation is reached and the transaction prices accordingly, the stake could be worth as much as $11.6 billion on paper.

The anticipated timing has also been a key part of the narrative. The report says SpaceX is preparing to begin trading on the Nasdaq on June 12, positioning the event as the first major liquidity step for investors that bought in at much earlier valuations.

Details on the deal being circulated include indications that SpaceX is targeting an offer price of $135 per share and raising about $75 billion, alongside the $1.75 trillion valuation target. The same reporting also notes Musk retains control, though it does not specify how control mechanics will affect the valuation math for early shareholders.

While Tesla is not directly tied to the transaction, Merritt’s involvement connects the story to a broader pattern: retail and market watchers tracking high-profile tech and private-company exits through major public-market voices. In that context, Tesla’s audience overlap can amplify attention on SpaceX-specific catalysts even when the two businesses operate independently.

For Ontario Teachers, the practical question is less about the headline number and more about whether the final pricing and share allocation match the assumptions behind the estimate. The report does not lay out the full capitalization table, the exact share count attributed to Ontario Teachers’ investment, or how any lockups, secondary-sale terms, or valuation adjustments would affect what becomes realizable value.

Still, the potential scale matters for a sector that has been reshaped by investor expectations for private space and satellite companies. A successful, high-valuation listing would also reinforce a market narrative that space infrastructure and launch services can justify blockbuster public-market valuations, even as risks remain tied to engineering timelines, launch cadence, and contract execution.