Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale says SpaceX’s public-market price may look “really cheap” in 10 years

SpaceX’s blockbuster entrance to public markets has reopened a familiar question on Wall Street: whether a high starting valuation leaves limited room for future gains. Palantir Technologies co-founder Joe Lonsdale, who also manages venture firm 8VC, said he expects the stock’s price to look very different over time, suggesting that SpaceX could look “really cheap” a decade from now.

Lonsdale’s comments follow a wave of discussion among investors about how to interpret a company’s valuation when it debuts on the market. In the post, the co-founder positioned the current pricing debate as less informative than the longer-term question of whether the underlying business can scale.

The remark highlights a theme that often comes up in early-stage-to-public transitions in the space and technology sectors. New public listings can quickly attract exuberant expectations, which may make valuations appear stretched when measured against today’s near-term benchmarks.

As a business case, Lonsdale’s argument implies that markets can misjudge value when they focus heavily on immediate revenue and profit snapshots rather than multi-year system effects, such as expanding deployment capacity, improving unit economics, or broader customer adoption over time. The underlying suggestion is that valuation “cheapness” or “expensiveness” is partly a function of the time horizon used to evaluate performance.

Palantir, where Lonsdale helped build the company, is known for selling data and software systems designed to integrate information and support decision-making for complex operations. While the comments were about SpaceX, Palantir’s broader perspective reflects an emphasis on scaling real-world use cases rather than treating valuation as purely a function of current-period financials.

The inclusion of Lonsdale, specifically, also underscores how venture investors can approach public-market pricing. Venture firms often invest with a long planning horizon, and 8VC’s role as a venture manager can shape how its partners interpret “what the stock should be worth” relative to potential over a decade.

What is not provided in the cited post is detailed financial analysis. The interview did not lay out any specific valuation model, numerical assumptions, or performance targets for SpaceX, nor did it compare SpaceX’s metrics to particular public peers.

The takeaway for markets is less about a precise forecast and more about the confidence long-horizon investors may have in mission-driven technology companies. Over the coming quarters, investors will likely watch whether SpaceX’s operating progress matches the optimistic framing, or whether early valuation skepticism proves more accurate.