Paul Skenes looks to restore Cy Young-level command when the Pirates face a surging lineup

Paul Skenes is trying to get back to the kind of performance that once made him a Cy Young-level conversation, and the Pirates are leaning on him to do it quickly. In an MLB recap, Skenes is described as taking a step back in 2026, with the “buzz surrounding his decline” growing louder as the numbers have shifted.

The measurable changes have been hard to ignore. The report cites an average fastball velocity of 96.8 mph, down from 98.2 mph in 2025. At the same time, his walk rate has increased to 7.2% from 5.7% the prior season, a combination that can pressure pitch counts and shorten innings when hitters are staying patient.

Those control and velocity concerns have shown up in the results. The release notes that Skenes’ ERA is 3.95, which it characterizes as a career high. The same piece frames the issue as potentially multifactorial, pointing to fatigue, adjustments by the league to his approach, and possible difficulties with feel and command.

The context of Skenes’ outing matters. The story is set against one of MLB’s “hottest lineups,” which raises the stakes for how he attacks hitters early. When velocity dips and the strike zone grows bigger through walks, lineups that are already rolling can turn a few pitches into innings. For the Pirates, that makes the start more than just another turn through the rotation, it becomes a referendum on whether Skenes can reestablish the version of his arsenal that limits traffic.

There is also a process question embedded in the numbers. Even when a pitcher’s outcomes slip, a return to command can often arrive before everything else, such as raw velocity, fully rebounds. The release suggests Skenes and the Pirates “know he should be better,” which implies an internal plan for how to get him closer to his typical rhythm, whether that means sequencing changes, a refined feel for specific pitches, or simply ironing out fatigue-related effects.

For Pirates fans, the immediate takeaway is that this is a moment where marginal differences decide whether the season stays on track. If the walk rate stabilizes and the fastball plays closer to his prior standards, the rest of his pitching profile has a better chance to follow. If not, the team may have to manage a rotation that is less forgiving against top-tier offenses.

What to watch next is straightforward. Monitor whether Skenes can cut down free passes while keeping hitters off balance with his fastball and off-speed mix. Just as important, pay attention to how quickly he gets ahead in counts, because against a “hottest lineup” opponent, early control is often the difference between a controlled start and a prolonged one. The Cy Young form he seeks may not return in a straight line, but the Pirates will be watching for concrete signs that the correction is underway.