Pending home sales slide in September, and Goldman Sachs warns of a tougher housing outlook into 2027

U.S. home sales momentum weakened further in September, according to new data, underscoring how quickly affordability pressures and financing constraints are taking hold. Pending home sales fell 7.3% for the month, and declined 11.3% from a year earlier, reaching a record low for the measure, the National Association of Realtors said.

The pending home sales index is watched by investors and policymakers as an early announcement for existing-home transaction activity. Because contract signings generally lead actual closings by weeks or months, a slide in pending activity often points to softer demand ahead rather than just last month’s sales performance.

The September drop was large enough to push the measure to its weakest point on record, a fact that adds to concerns that the housing sector is struggling to absorb higher mortgage costs and elevated prices. With year-over-year declines as well as a steep monthly fall, the data suggest the market is not only cooling, but doing so broadly across time horizons rather than in a one-off seasonal pattern.

Against that backdrop, Goldman Sachs flagged a bleak path for the housing market into 2027, as described in markets coverage that referenced the bank’s view. While details of the bank’s forecast were not provided in the brief item, the message centered on continued pressure rather than a near-term rebound.

For Goldman Sachs, housing is not just a macro storyline. The bank is active across mortgage-related and consumer credit markets through underwriting, trading and financing activities, and it routinely ties housing demand trends to broader interest-rate assumptions and credit conditions. When pending transaction activity weakens, it can affect the outlook for mortgage origination volumes and related credit performance, even if the link varies by product and geography.

Sector-wise, the housing market remains sensitive to mortgage rates, which influence the monthly payment a buyer can afford, and to household income and employment. When affordability deteriorates, potential buyers may delay purchases, refinance demand can slow, and sellers may face longer selling timelines, all of which can show up first in contract-based indicators like pending sales.

Still, much of what traders care about is not fully spelled out in the coverage: the specific assumptions behind Goldman Sachs’ 2027 characterization, the scenarios being compared, and whether the bank expects improvement from policy changes, rate declines, or other drivers were not included in the posted report.

What to watch next is whether subsequent monthly readings of pending home sales stabilize or continue to fall toward new lows, and whether any shift in mortgage rates or credit availability is visible in contract signings. Another key announcement will be how quickly (or slowly) weakness in pending activity translates into closed sales and pricing trends, which ultimately determine how much distress spills into the broader economy.