Pfizer’s comeback thesis faces a tug-of-war between “COVID cliff” drag and pipeline optimism

Pfizer’s stock has been stuck in a narrow range despite recent signs of operational strength, according to a market note that frames a potential path to a major price move. The post, published June 10 by 24/7 Wall St., points to a share price around $25.62, a dividend yield of about 6.7 percent, and what it describes as five consecutive quarterly earnings-per-share beats before the stock lost momentum after Q1.

The same note also highlights the reason investors appear cautious: Pfizer’s “COVID cliff.” It attributes part of the valuation problem to sharp declines in revenue from Comirnaty and Paxlovid. In its description of Pfizer’s Q1 2026 results, it says Comirnaty revenue fell 59 percent and Paxlovid dropped 63 percent, masking growth elsewhere. That dynamic, it argues, has kept the market from fully crediting the rest of the portfolio.

Beyond the immediate COVID impact, the market note cites additional headwinds. It mentions a $1.5 billion drag expected from generics and biosimilars during the year, and it also references continued skepticism from at least one analyst. In the post’s framing, Barclays maintained a Sell rating with a $25 price target, while a separate summary of analyst distribution is offered: a consensus target around $29.19, with 2 Strong Buys, 9 Buys, 15 Holds, 1 Sell, and 2 Strong Sells.

Still, the article’s central claim is that “proof” rather than “hope” could drive a re-rating, and it points to Pfizer’s pipeline as the catalyst. The post emphasizes an obesity drug effort, describing berobenatide as a monthly GLP-1 (a class of medicines used to treat metabolic and weight-control conditions). It claims the compound showed 15.9 percent weight loss at 32 weeks with no plateau and states that 10 Phase 3 studies are planned for 2026.

The market note also gestures to other late-stage or regulatory milestones. It says HYMPAVZI (an existing therapy for pediatric hemophilia patients) received expanded FDA approval for broader pediatric use. It further references a Phase 3 Lyme disease vaccine result, citing 73.2 percent efficacy. The post then argues that such developments are not yet fully reflected in the stock’s valuation, implying investors may have to “play catch-up” later.

Valuation math is where the post becomes most specific. It says that moving from roughly $25.62 to $50 would require about a 95.2 percent gain from the current level. It also describes forward earnings of about $3.21, which would imply a forward P/E near 16 times at a $50 price point. In its own model, the base case estimate is $32.01 (about 24.95 percent upside), but reaching $50 would require a larger change in the valuation multiple, not just earnings growth.

The post includes a cautionary backdrop about risk and uncertainty, even while leaning toward an upside scenario. It points out that a low beta, cited around 0.295, does not prevent Pfizer’s shares from being priced conservatively. It also notes that its discussion depends heavily on whether investors start assigning higher value to the pipeline by 2027 and beyond, rather than continuing to focus primarily on the near-term decline in COVID-related revenue.

The company itself did not appear in the market note with additional primary-company detail, such as specific guidance updates, trial protocol changes, or formal financial outlook. The published post is therefore best read as a valuation and narrative argument, not as confirmation of new commitments from Pfizer beyond what is already publicly known to the author. For readers, the key missing piece is what Pfizer’s own management and filings say about timelines, probability of success, and how quickly pipeline progress could translate into earnings-per-share growth.