Pitching may decide the National League MVP race, with Pete Crow-Armstrong pitched as a potential challenger to Shohei Ohtani

The National League MVP conversation is turning into a pitching-centered showdown in the late summer, at least according to CBS Sports, which framed the matchup between Shohei Ohtani and Pete Crow-Armstrong as a contest that could come down less to headlines and more to who most clearly changes the outcome of games. The question, in this view, is whether Crow-Armstrong can separate himself enough to make the case against Ohtani’s momentum as the MVP picture tightens.

Ohtani remains the kind of player who can dominate award discussions because of how his contributions travel across formats and expectations. CBS Sports pointed out that Ohtani has started a throwing program, underscoring that the way he’s managed physically and how closely he aligns with team needs can influence what voters reward. The MVP race does not always follow pure box-score lines, but it often follows the story of who looks most complete as the season reaches its decisive stretch.

That is where CBS Sports’ central thesis comes in: pitching will be the key. The rationale is familiar to longtime MVP watchers. Voters typically look for overall run prevention and game control when they can get it, even if the league’s top position players have their own offensive gravity. When the NL is weighing an MVP candidate who is tied to pitching value and a candidate whose path is through something else, the comparative advantage can shift based on whether one player’s impact feels more decisive late than early.

Crow-Armstrong’s candidacy, in this frame, becomes a question of separation. CBS Sports’ storyline suggests that for a non-pitching star to win MVP against an Ohtani-type profile, the player’s overall value must look unmistakably broad, not merely hot. In other words, voters would have to see enough sustained, season-defining influence to look past the natural tendency to reward pitching-adjacent impact.

It is also worth noting how quickly award narratives can change in MLB once the late-season lens arrives. CBS Sports cited how past MVP races captured attention when voters were deciding between multiple premium profiles across different leagues and years. The outlet referenced heated comparisons such as Cal Raleigh versus Aaron Judge in the American League in one season, and it also pointed to other widely discussed head-to-head conversations like Ronald Acuna Jr. versus Mookie Betts, along with Shohei Ohtani versus Aaron Judge and Ohtani versus Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Those examples matter because they illustrate a consistent pattern: MVP debates often turn into memory contests about who looked most transformative at the exact point when voters were watching hardest.

For Crow-Armstrong, the late-season test is not just whether he can be productive, but whether his production lines up with the qualities MVP voters tend to privilege: consistency, clarity of impact, and the sense that his presence changes games in a way that is easy to justify in a ballot room. For Ohtani, the test is the opposite. His case depends on how fully his game value shows up in the way voters can measure it, including how his throwing program development is reflected in the season’s final act.

What to watch next is straightforward but not simple. Watch whether Crow-Armstrong’s contributions look more like a steady engine or more like an extended stretch of high-leverage spikes that can be translated into award language. At the same time, watch how the narrative around Ohtani’s readiness and role evolves as the season progresses and whether the elements of his two-way profile remain legible to voters. In a race where pitching value is being emphasized, voters will likely reward the candidate whose impact can be described as both dominant and durable, not just exciting.