Rams open as heavy Super Bowl favorites, but recent history warns “preseason best” is a dangerous label

The Los Angeles Rams are entering the 2026 season with the kind of preseason aura that usually comes with a steep burden. Yahoo Sports reported that bookmakers have installed the Rams as the clear Super Bowl favorites after a busy offseason and a roster makeover aimed at turning regular-season dominance into championship results. In football terms, it is the rare setup where a team is not merely “a contender,” but the presumed favorite before the first snap of the year.

The construction of that favorite status is easy to trace. According to Yahoo, the Rams finished last season near the top of the NFL and then added major impact talent on defense through two marquee moves: cornerback Trent McDuffie and edge rusher Myles Garrett. The report framed McDuffie’s deal as the largest contract ever for an NFL cornerback, while describing Garrett’s signing as equally momentous, citing Garrett’s record-setting single-season sack production in his most recent comparable season.

On paper, that is the blueprint for a team that wants to shorten games, flip field position, and turn third downs into opponent-long nights. The Rams are not simply adding depth or rotational pieces. They are stacking premium skill sets, with McDuffie built around pass defense at the boundary and Garrett built around relentless pressure and finishing plays in the pocket or off the edge. When both are in place, the ceiling is obvious.

But the same Yahoo report argued that arriving as the preseason favorite does not automatically translate into winning in February. It pointed to a specific pattern: dating back to the 1995 season, only four teams that entered their year as the preseason Super Bowl favorites won the championship. The report also cited that those winners included the 2006 Colts, the 2016 Patriots, the 2018 Patriots, and the 2023 Chiefs, numbers that underscore how low the hit rate has been when expectations are highest at kickoff.

The stakes behind that argument are not just trivia. Preseason favorites are often constructed from a blend of recent performance, roster quality, and perceived matchup strength, but the NFL introduces volatility through injuries, schematic adjustments, and the brutal realism of late-season football. Even when a team is loaded, the margin for error in the playoffs is narrow enough that one cold streak or one game plan that a strong opponent can solve can move a season off its intended path. That is why the Rams’ label, for all its legitimacy, should be treated as a starting point rather than a forecast.

Still, there is no clear sign the Rams are being propped up by hype alone. Yahoo’s framing, in part, is that Los Angeles has the talent and continuity to make those added pieces matter. The report also noted that the Seahawks won the Super Bowl after being priced as a longshot prior to the season, a reminder that “favorite versus underdog” can flip quickly, but also a suggestion that large gaps in preseason expectations are not as predictive as fans often assume.

For what to watch next, the storyline is likely to narrow around how the Rams deploy their revamped defense and how quickly the offense and defense sync into a cohesive identity. If Los Angeles can turn talent into consistency early, that answers the central question that preseason favorites always face: can this kind of roster translate into playoff-level execution over multiple weeks, not just highlight plays in isolated moments? In the Rams’ case, the offseason has already made them the team everyone points to. The season will decide whether that distinction becomes proof or a warning.

Ultimately, this is the central tension of the modern NFL calendar. The Rams appear positioned to be the most formidable opponent in the league before anyone plays meaningful games, and Yahoo’s depiction is that there is enough talent, especially on defense, to justify that ranking. The league’s recent history, however, suggests that the path from “loaded” to “champion” is never linear, even when the roster looks nearly finished before training camp.