Reds Try to Extend Momentum as Brady Singer Faces Michael McGreevy

The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals meet in a late-summer, must-win type of matchup where the story is less about the calendar and more about what each team is trying to protect. Cincinnati is pushing to keep a series win in reach, while St. Louis is still working its way through a postseason scenario that, according to one widely cited probability model, is not dead but remains extremely difficult.

As of Thursday morning, FanGraphs’ playoff projections gave the Reds a 0.2% chance of reaching the postseason. The figure does not mean Cincinnati is mathematically eliminated in every model or every league framework, but it does capture the practical reality: wins have to come in clusters, and even then the margin for error is thin. For the Cardinals, the projected playoff odds were higher at 9.5%, a number that still reads like a miracle line but is materially more forgiving than Cincinnati’s.

The pitching matchup set for the game pairs Brady Singer for the Reds against Michael McGreevy for the Cardinals. A starting-pitcher duel like this takes on extra weight when both clubs are chasing outcomes that can swing a season. For the Reds, a strong outing helps them compress urgency into a single night. For St. Louis, getting length and run prevention from its starter matters because the team’s probability outlook depends on stacking results rather than simply performing well in isolated games.

Even with the postseason odds tilted heavily toward St. Louis having a longer runway, the Cardinals’ path still depends on things going right in multiple places at once. A 9.5% projection typically reflects a combination of winning more often than the opponent in head-to-heads, keeping the bullpen from being taxed repeatedly, and benefitting from broader league results. In other words, Cincinnati can influence this narrative too, even if the Reds are not favored to contend with the Cardinals for a playoff spot.

From a tactical standpoint, matchups between a team’s starter and an opponent’s lineup are where games like this often decide themselves early. When Cincinnati and St. Louis face each other in a late-season setting, the teams tend to emphasize sequencing: how they attack hitters in the first few times through the order, whether they can force swings at the right pitches, and how efficiently they turn contact into outs. That’s especially true for St. Louis, where the season’s math makes every extra base feel magnified.

Cincinnati’s immediate objective is straightforward, win the series and keep its clubhouse energy pointed in the same direction rather than letting the postseason probabilities dull the urgency. St. Louis’s objective is also clear, convert competitive games into results that preserve playoff oxygen. The contrast between a 0.2% and a 9.5% chance is stark, but both teams can still shape the week by simply winning the next game and the next decision after that.

What to watch next is how both starters manage their effectiveness in the middle innings. If Singer can prevent the kind of damage that creates quick bullpen innings, the Reds can treat the contest like a series-building win rather than a one-run survival exercise. If McGreevy limits hard contact and keeps St. Louis’s relief unit fresher than Cincinnati’s, the Cardinals can turn their projected odds into an actual winning streak, which is the only kind of probability that matters.