Rookie of the Year watch tightens as Murakami’s hamstring check interrupts a power surge

Over a third of the way into the season, the MLB Rookie of the Year races in both leagues have begun to look like two separate pictures, one of clear standouts and another of how quickly the rest can catch up when roles, health, and opportunity shift. FOX Sports’ early awards review placed Detroit shortstop Kevin McGonigle and St. Louis second baseman J.J. Wetherholt near the top of the AL and NL discussion, while also noting that Chicago’s Munetaka Murakami had been on track for a historic-type home run run before a hamstring issue put his momentum on pause.

Murakami’s production has not disappeared. FOX Sports reported that he ranks among home run leaders even while dealing with a hamstring injury, and it framed his overall approach as both three-outcome power and a patience profile: the report said he has the third-highest total of home runs in MLB, along with a high walk rate and high strikeout rate among qualified hitters. The concern is timing and availability. If that hamstring strain limits the frequency or intensity of his at-bats for any extended stretch, it changes the math of the Rookie of the Year voting, because season-long impact tends to travel with durability.

In the American League, McGonigle’s case has been built on steady volume and on-base value from the middle of the infield. FOX Sports said the Tigers rookie has led all rookies in hits and on-base percentage, while ranking second among rookies in doubles and OPS and posting more walks than strikeouts. The same piece added an advanced framing, citing that McGonigle is one of the only shortstops above 3.0 bWAR in MLB this season and that he is, by that metric, the most valuable rookie in the league so far.

The Tigers shortstop context matters because the position is often where rookie narratives rise or stall. The report emphasized that McGonigle’s offensive package is not only about raw results, it is about frequency, and about how his plate discipline translates into baserunners even when batting average fluctuates. As the season moves deeper, that kind of consistent value tends to survive slumps better than purely power-based seasons, which can be sharper but more volatile.

In the National League, Wetherholt’s start has drawn attention as a quietly complete offensive profile that complements the league’s broader spread of rookie talent. FOX Sports’ roundup placed him among the leaders in the NL race, and it contrasted his run with other rookies who have flashed on individual metrics. The league-wide point is that voters often weigh both peak production and the credibility of the player’s role, especially for rookies who are not just filling a gap but driving a lineup from the regular spot.

On the pitching side, FOX Sports flagged Cleveland’s rookie starter, identified in the piece as Messick, as a player to watch for the award. The report said Messick has been the most productive rookie pitcher in baseball and ranks third among qualified AL starters in ERA, behind Cam Schlittler and another name that FOX Sports highlighted in its broader list. The Rookie of the Year races have increasingly included pitchers as legitimate contenders when they combine innings with run prevention, not just high strikeout totals.

Where this race goes next, the clearest watch item is the Murakami timeline. FOX Sports said he has been sidelined since late May due to the hamstring strain, which implies a comeback path that will likely be managed rather than rushed. If he returns and resumes his power pace, he can still compress the vote gap quickly. If the hamstring continues to flare or forces fewer games, the AL race may become more about McGonigle’s consistency and how other rookies build their own seasons around opportunity. In the NL, Wetherholt’s progression is a separate hinge point, especially as other contenders try to turn early momentum into sustained two-way value through the summer.

keyFacts