SpaceX IPO roadshow reframes how Tesla investors may value Elon Musk’s “second” public market bet

SpaceX’s IPO roadshow launch has injected new urgency into an old question for Tesla investors: does owning Tesla stock still give exposure to Elon Musk’s broader technological ambitions, or will a future public SpaceX act as a direct alternative that forces investors to rethink Tesla’s valuation? In a June 6 market analysis published by The Motley Fool, the author argued that a SpaceX IPO could change investor psychology around Tesla, potentially making Tesla’s premium valuation harder to justify purely as a “Musk-platform” story rather than a measurable auto, software, and robotics execution story. The timing of that debate is now sharply tied to real IPO milestones. On June 4, 2026, SpaceX announced it had launched the roadshow for an IPO of 555,555,555 shares of its Class A common stock, with an expected offering price of $135.00 per share and a proposed Nasdaq listing under the ticker symbol SPCX.

The core of the Tesla debate is that Tesla has long traded differently from traditional automakers, according to the analysis. The post described Tesla as a multi-opportunity technology bet that extends beyond electric vehicles into areas such as autonomous driving, “robotaxi” services, AI software, and humanoid robotics. Tesla has also said it is pursuing that same direction at the business level. In its 2025 Form 10-K, Tesla described its focus as bringing artificial intelligence “into the real world” through products and services including Full Self-Driving (FSD) (Supervised) and Robotaxi, while also working to develop and commercialize AI robots, including Optimus.

The author further argued that Tesla’s premium has been supported by scarcity, because for years investors had limited public-market ways to invest alongside Musk through other major companies. That scarcity could be reduced, the post says, if SpaceX becomes publicly traded and investors can compare two Musk-led growth vehicles side by side. The analysis pointed to Tesla’s scale, noting Tesla delivered roughly 1.6 million vehicles in 2025, while describing the stock’s valuation as far above traditional auto peers, citing a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 15.6. The post argued that once the market has another large, Musk-led company to evaluate directly, Tesla’s valuation “framework” could shift toward execution metrics rather than ambition alone.

That “execution” framing matters for what Tesla would likely need to demonstrate to retain investor confidence. In the Motley Fool analysis, the areas that could become more emphasized include robotaxi deployment, the performance of Full Self-Driving, and Optimus commercialization. In other words, the post suggests investors may demand more visible progress, especially if Tesla is compared against a SpaceX story that the market may initially perceive as fresher or better positioned for public-market momentum.

Still, the analysis also cautioned that selling Tesla entirely for a SpaceX position could be a mistake. It pointed to Tesla’s existing global manufacturing footprint and the data advantage it gets from millions of vehicles gathering real-world driving information each day. It also argued Tesla controls key software, AI infrastructure, and hardware elements internally, which could translate into high-margin business opportunities if autonomy scales. The post additionally said Musk’s companies increasingly resemble parts of a connected technology ecosystem, noting Tesla’s investment activity related to xAI and ongoing collaboration themes that link SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI around infrastructure and computing.

Company context reinforces why autonomy and robotics are central to Tesla’s investor narrative, even as the near-term path remains uncertain. Tesla’s 2025 Form 10-K emphasized FSD (Supervised), Robotaxi, and AI robots (including Optimus) as the products and services through which it intends to operationalize AI. It also reported 2025 operating scale and financial resources, including producing about 1.66 million consumer vehicles and delivering about 1.64 million, total revenues of $94.83 billion, net income attributable to common stockholders of $3.79 billion, and cash and cash equivalents and investments of $44.06 billion at year-end, figures that investors may weigh when judging whether Tesla can fund its autonomy and robotics ambitions.

One uncertainty is also baked into both stories. SpaceX has not yet been evaluated under the full transparency requirements of a public-company earnings cycle, and its IPO documentation is still being worked through as markets anticipate pricing and trading. In SpaceX’s June 4 press release and its SEC filing materials, the offering is described as an IPO roadshow with a proposed $135 price and a ticker application for SPCX, with the SEC materials also outlining a planned expected pricing date of June 11, and a 366-day lock-up for Elon Musk. For Tesla, autonomy and robotics milestones remain difficult to translate into short-term, verifiable performance benchmarks. What to watch next, then, is how quickly public-market investors start comparing Tesla versus SpaceX, and whether Tesla’s disclosures and product progress increasingly address the execution questions that the new IPO backdrop puts in focus.