Speculation mounts that SpaceX and Tesla could combine, creating a near-$4 trillion giant

SpaceX and Tesla have once again become the center of merger speculation, with multiple market reports suggesting that a combination of the two companies could yield an entity valued at nearly $4 trillion. The idea has reappeared after comments and market pricing shifted the arithmetic of any potential all-stock transaction, reigniting questions about how Musk’s holdings might be reorganized.

The latest discussion has been fueled by reporting that SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell did not rule out a possible Tesla acquisition, following her appearance on CNBC on June 12. In that interview, Shotwell said there is “a convergence we’re all trying to accomplish in the future,” and added that a tie-up “might make Elon’s life a little easier,” according to the excerpted account.

Merger speculation has also been tied to how quickly SpaceX’s market value has been repriced since its recent public-market debut, making it easier to imagine a deal where SpaceX could buy Tesla with fewer shares than would have been required earlier. Fortune’s account frames this as an improved “math” for a potential union: the higher SpaceX valuation reduces the number of Tesla shares it would need to exchange in an all-stock scenario.

On the Tesla side, Fortune characterizes the company’s fundamentals as softening. It cites Tesla’s GAAP net earnings declining over the past four quarters to $3.4 billion, down from $15 billion in 2023 and $7.0 billion in 2024, even while Tesla’s market cap remains around $1.5 trillion in the period discussed. The piece attributes that gap, in part, to investor expectations about future products such as robotics and self-driving capabilities that are still pending commercialization timelines.

Fortune also points to a specific valuation example used in the merger debate. At an offer price of $135 per share, the article says SpaceX would have been valued at roughly $1.75 trillion in the model it describes, making an all-stock transaction more attractive “at least in theory.” It also notes that the central narrative among some investors is how a combination could help address challenges around Tesla’s outlook.

Even with renewed speculation, neither SpaceX nor Tesla has disclosed a definitive plan to merge in the materials cited here. What is clear is that executives tied to SpaceX have indicated openness to strategic convergence, while investors have increasingly focused on whether valuations and deal mechanics could align. The companies themselves have not, in the cited reporting, offered terms, timing, or regulatory paths for any transaction.

For Tesla, any combination would raise questions about how its investor expectations could be managed if the business were folded into a larger operating structure led by SpaceX’s engineering and AI-heavy culture. For SpaceX, a transaction would also require scrutiny from the standpoint of capital allocation, governance, and whether Tesla’s slower near-term financial trajectory would be worth absorbing inside a single corporate framework.

What to watch next is whether either company provides additional public comments that move beyond general strategic convergence, or whether filings and deal-related disclosures surface. Investors will also look for whether market pricing continues to shift the merger “math,” since that is portrayed as a key driver of why speculation has intensified this time.