THE APEX TIMES
Spotify removed streams tied to a chart-topping song after traders’ suspicious Kalshi bets, raising questions about prediction-market safeguards
The music-streaming company said it detected manipulated viewing activity connected to bets on the Kalshi prediction market and removed the streams, while Kalshi said it is investigating.
Spotify said it removed streaming counts for a song that briefly surged to the top of its U.S. charts after traders placed bets on the Kalshi prediction market, following reports of suspicious activity tied to the music track.
According to reporting from CBS News, the song was “Earrings” by Malcolm Todd, which climbed rapidly to No. 1 and gained attention after a surge of betting activity on Kalshi. Spotify later removed the associated streams, saying it does not believe they came from genuine listeners.
In a statement provided to CBS News, a Spotify spokesperson said stream manipulation is an ongoing problem across streaming services. Spotify said it has “best in class detection and mitigation practices for manipulated streams,” and it added that it does not pay out royalties associated with the manipulated activity.
The same report said a Kalshi spokesperson told CBS News that the company is in touch with Spotify and investigating the matter. The reporting also described broader concern that prediction markets, which allow bets to settle based on real-world outcomes, may be vulnerable if there are insufficient safeguards against manipulation.
Prediction markets have attracted significant interest because they translate event outcomes into traded prices. But critics have argued that these platforms can be exploited if someone has inside knowledge or the ability to influence the event they are betting on. The CBS report framed the Spotify episode as another test of those safeguards, particularly where a market outcome is tied to a measurable external metric.
The episode comes as Spotify continues to rely on streaming charts and listener activity for both audience-facing rankings and internal operational indicates. When streaming counts can be distorted through automated or coordinated behavior, it can also distort the public narrative around what is popular, even if downstream reporting eventually corrects it.
Spotify did not outline in the available reporting how many streams were removed, what detection indicates were triggered, or what the company concluded about how the betting activity linked to the streaming manipulation was carried out. It also did not provide details on whether it took additional steps beyond stream removal, such as reporting activity to regulators or pursuing direct action against any accounts.
What to watch next is whether Spotify and Kalshi publish more information about the scope of the removed activity and any policy or product changes to reduce the risk of the same pattern repeating. Regulators and market participants may also focus on whether other prediction markets, such as Polymarket, should strengthen controls when outcomes depend on live, manipulable public metrics.
Why It Matters
- If prediction-market outcomes can be influenced through manipulable media metrics, it can undermine trust in price discovery and settlements.
- Spotify’s willingness to remove streams highlights the reputational and economic risk of automated or coordinated activity, even when it is not from real listeners.
- The episode may pressure prediction markets to tighten monitoring around outcomes tied to near-real-time public dashboards and rankings.
- More scrutiny of how regulators view prediction-market safeguards could follow, especially for markets that rely on external indicates that can be gamed.
Key Facts
- Spotify said it removed streams tied to a No. 1 track after it found the activity was not from genuine listeners.
- The track reported as involved was “Earrings” by Malcolm Todd.
- Spotify told CBS News it has detection and mitigation practices for manipulated streams and said it does not pay out associated royalties.
- Kalshi said it is investigating and is in contact with Spotify, according to CBS News.
- The episode centers on alleged links between betting on Kalshi and abnormal streaming activity that helped push the song to the top of the chart.
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